周四A股上涨。两市成交量较前一交易日略降，但仍在9000亿以上。申万28个行业中只有4个下跌，分别为银行、轻工制造、农林牧渔和建筑装饰，涨幅居前的行业为电子、通信和机械设备。恒生指数和国企指数微跌，科技指数上涨0.64%。北上资金净流入146亿人民币，连续三天大额净流入；南下资金净流出8.1亿港币，结束了连续十一个交易日的净流入。人民币兑美元升值至2018年5月以来的高点--6.3816。

股票是对冲通货膨胀的有效工具。从1970到2012年，美国股票的年复合收益率为9.4%，而同期的消费者价格指数平均涨幅为4.4%。从1964年到2015年，恒生指数的年复合收益率为11%，而同期消费者价格指数的年平均涨幅为4.46%。因此，无论是发达市场还是新兴市场，股票市场的收益率都能够跑赢通胀。从长期看，股票是对冲通胀的有效工具。上世纪80年代一瓶茅台的价格只有几块钱，现在是2000多元。而茅台股票从上市时的几块钱涨到最高接近3000元。股票能够有效对冲通货膨胀是因为股票代表对资产盈利的所有权。当通货膨胀增加了这些资产的运营成本时，长期来看通过它的盈利能力消化掉。随着时间推移，股票价格以及盈利和股息能够与通货膨胀的上涨速度一致。因此，股票能够对冲通货膨胀。但对短期发生的通货膨胀，很多股票可能不具有这种转嫁能力。同时，因为担心央行会通过加息来抑制通胀，这也会导致股票价格下跌。因此，短期股票会受到通货膨胀的负面影响。短期通货膨胀最受益的是大宗商品，最受损的是现金。因此，通货膨胀来临，或者买点黄金放着，或者投资股市。股市短期可能会下跌，但长期看一定是跑赢通胀的。债券无论短期还是长期都不具有抵御通胀的能力。短期看，债券价格会由于利率上升而下降。长期而言，债券到期收益率通常较低，跑不赢通胀。但债券强于现金，毕竟持有到期还是有一些利息收益的。

美股道指上涨，纳指微跌。1季度GDP略增速低于预期，但上周申请失业救济人数再次创下新冠疫情以来的新低。经济复苏股涨幅领先。

On Thursday A-share rose broadly. Trading volume was lower than that on Wednesday but still above RMB900 billion. Only 4 out of 28 sectors fell, which were banks, light industry, fishery and farming and construction and decoration. Electronic,communication and machinery sector rose the most. In HK Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index dropped while tech index rose. North-bound capital net inflow remained high at RMB14.6 billion. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$810 million, concluding the eleven-day net inflow in a row. RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar, reaching a new high since May 2018.

Howto protect your fortune in inflation?  The US stock delivered compound annualized rate of return (CARR) of 9.4% from 1970 to 2012 while consumer prices increased at 4.4% annually. Hang Seng Index provided CARR of 11% from 1964 to 2015 and consumer prices rose at CARR of 4.46%. Both the US, representing the developed stock markets, and HK market, which can represent the emerging stock markets， show that in the long term stock can beat inflation. The reason is that stock represents partial ownership of assets which can create revenue and profit. In inflation these assets can transfer the inflation to their consumers who buy their products or services. So in the long run stock prices along with their earnings and dividends will rise in step with inflation. But in the short term stocks would be affected by inflation as well. When inflation comes the central banks would raise interest rates. This would cause stock prices to fall. In inflationary environment commodity performs the best and cash performs the poorest. Bond cannot defend inflation whether in the short run or long run. In the short term bond prices would fall sharply once interest rates rise. In the long run bond yields are usually too low to beat inflation. Investors can buy some commodity such as gold or good stocks.

Dow and SP 500 rose. The initial jobless claim last week was the lowest since pandemic. Reopening stocks rallied.

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