周一A股和港股均上涨。A股申万28个行业中20个上涨，其中电气设备、国防军工和有色金属行业涨幅领先，而休闲服务、家用电器和交通运输行业跌幅领先。港股恒生12个综合行业中5个上涨，其中医疗保健、科技和必需消费业涨幅居前，而公用事业、综合和金融领跌。北上资金净流入52.1亿人民币，南下资金净流出9.5亿港币。

5月PMI和三孩政策。5月官方制造业采购经理人指数显示经济仍处在扩张阶段，但外需有所走弱，可能是国外疫情缓解导致当地产能提升造成对国内产品的挤出效应。三孩政策出台推动了A股和港股的相关股票上涨。据人口专家估算，三孩政策将会使明年出生人口增加不到100万，有利于阻止出生人口持续下滑的局面。但从西方国家的经验看，当人口总和出生率下降后，鼓励生育政策很难在短期内取得明显成效。

抱团股上涨和人民币升值。央行31日发布公告称，为加强金融机构外汇流动性管理，中国人民银行决定，自2021年6月15日起，上调金融机构外汇存款准备金率2个百分点，即外汇存款准备金率由现行的5%提高到7%。上周，人民币对美元汇率中间价累计升值442点，幅度0.69%，创近20周最大单周升值幅度。截至2021年4月底，金融机构外汇存款余额为1万亿美金，上调2个百分点可冻结200亿美金的外汇存款。外汇占款是我国基础货币发行的渠道之一。近期，银行间流动性宽松，市场对央行政策的转向担忧基本消失。我们认为央行的政策导向仍然没有变，但由于人民币升值导致外资涌入，造成外汇占款上升，而央行不得不在外汇占款的基础上发行基础货币，对国内市场提供了流动性。国内流动性充裕的条件下，估值高的抱团股再度卷土重来。个别股票已经创出历史新高。抱团股的炒作是否能够持续与流动性紧密相关。央行在对外汇流动性管理后，国内市场的流动性也将受到一定的影响。同时，未来不排除央行出手对国内流动性进行管理。纯粹拉估值的狂欢也将会戛然而止。

美股上涨。经合组织上调今明两年全球经济增长到5.8%和4.4%。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Monday. 20 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment,military and defense and non-ferrous metal rising the most. Leisure service, home appliance and transportation fell the most. The pandemic surged in Guangzhou caused investors to dump airlines and railway stocks. 5 out of 12 sectors in HK rose. Healthcare, tech and discretionary consumption rose the most and tech, conglomerates and financial fell the most. North-bound capital net inflow was RMB 5.21 billion. South-bound capital net outflow was HK$950 million. 

The rise of group-holding stocks and RMB appreciation. The funds outstanding for foreign exchange is one of the channels to issue base money for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). With the appreciation of RMB over the last two months, PBOC had to inject liquidity into the market. This is the major reason that liquidity in interbank lending market has been abundant recently.Market thought that PBOC was not U-turning from its easing monetary policy. As a result, the high-valued group-holding stocks rallied and some of them have seen stock prices reach a historical high. On Monday PBOC announced that it would raise foreign exchange reserve ratio from 5% to 7% from June 15th with a purpose to restrain the fast appreciation of RMB. As the end of April therewas a total of US$ 1 trillion foreign exchange in f inancial institutions’ accounts. This measure would therefore freeze US$2 million foreign exchange,which would affect domestic liquidity as well. PBOC might manage domestic liquidity if there is a risk of asset bubble, as it did in February this year.  The carnival of group-holding stocks might come to an abrupt end by then. Remember to leave the dancing floor earlier.

The US stocks rose. OECD raised global economic growth rate for this year and 2022 from 5.6% and 4% to 5.8% and 4.4%. The new cases of COVID-19 in the US dropped to the lowest level since March 2020.

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