周二A股指数涨跌不一。上证指数小幅上涨，创业板指小幅下跌，科创50则上涨超过1个百分点，创出4个月新高。申万28个行业中20个上涨，其中采掘、化工和纺织服装领涨，而非银金融、电器设备和银行跌幅领先。人民银行拟上调外汇存款准备金率对人民币汇率构成冲击，人民币升值趋势暂缓。港股恒生12个综合行业中7个上涨，其中科技、能源和非必需性消费涨幅居前，而必需消费、综合和原材料行业领跌。北上资金净流入11亿人民币，南下资金净流入52.9亿港币。A股和港股六月第一个交易日可以视为开门红。五月不穷，六月是否“绝”有待观察。

通胀很可能不是暂时性的。通胀有三种类型，一种是需求拉动型，一种是成本推动性，最后一种是供应短缺造成的通胀。所有的通胀最后都会走向滞涨。美国上世纪70年代的滞涨就是一系列通胀最终的结果。我们判断如果此次通胀超预期，很有可能是上述三种类型通胀的组合。美国大型连锁超市开市客的首席财务官在2021年1季度业绩发布的电话会议上指出芯片短缺影响经济的各个环节，造成通胀压力。同时，通胀压力还来自于集装箱的短缺和运输成本的上升，上升的劳动力成本，各种商品的短缺以及上升的大宗商品价格。他特别提到的商品包括牛肉、纸制品和铝箔。2021年4月美国个人消费支出指数，这是美联储跟踪通胀的重要指标，同比上涨3.1%，超预期。同时4月份的消费者价格指数同比上涨4.2%，为2008年9月以来的最高月度涨幅。高盛分析师认为供应短缺导致的通胀在秋季有可能消失，因为疫情大幅缓解之后供应链也将会随之修复。长期而言，通胀是否能够持续取决于经济是否过热，就业超过长期潜在水平。高盛近期大幅上调6月消费者价格指数上涨幅度到3.6%，全年预计在3.5%。美联储官员在近期的讲话中一再强调他们认为通胀只会持续几个月。当然如果他们发现通胀不是暂时性的，他们也会采取行动。一些投资人赌注美联储的判断是错误的。如果通胀不是暂时性的，也许意味着经济高增长也不是暂时性的。

美股复苏股上涨，科技股下跌。数据显示劳动力短缺推升通胀。

Most of the major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose on Monday.RMB appreciation trend paused as the People’s Bank of China announced that they would raise the foreign exchange reserve ratio. North-bound capital still registered net inflow of HK$1.1 billion.

The inflation might not be transient. There are three types of inflation. The first one is demand-driven. The second type is cost-driven and the third one is caused by supply shortage. The CFO of Costco told analysts in its 1Q2021 earnings call held recently that there had been and were a variety of inflationary pressures. Inflationary factors abound. These include higher labor costs, higher freight costs, higher transportation demand,along with the container shortage and port delays, increased demand in various product categories, various shortages of everything from chips to oils and chemical supplies by facilities hit by the Gulf freeze and storms and, in some cases, higher commodity prices. He mentioned particular inflationary pressure in beef, paper goods and aluminum foil. Goldman Sachs economist believed that worker and auto shortage were probably going to be much less of a factor once into the fall. But in the short-term, it is an upside risk. Longer term, the key questions are whether the economy is going to overheat and to move far beyond the potential long-term sustainable level of household unemployment. If that were the case, then investors would have to be more worried about inflation. But they don't really expect that. Both CPI and Personal consumption expenditure in April came in higher than expected. While Fed has reiterated that inflation would only last several months, markets are betting that they could be wrong. If inflation is not transient, the high growth rate of economy will persist as well.

The US stocks mixed on Monday. Reopening stocks rose while tech stocks fell. The ISM PMI in May showed that labor shortage was pushing up inflation.

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