周四A股和港股继续下跌。A股融资余额连续两日超过1.7万亿人民币（下同），上次融资余额超过1.7万亿是2015年4-6月，即股灾发生之前。2015年6月融资余额达到历史最高点2.07万亿。2015年从年初到4月仅仅几个月融资余额就从1万亿上涨到1.7万亿，而今年年初以来融资余额就在1.6-1.7万亿之间，上涨速度较平稳，应不会造成像2015年那样一旦流动性收紧股市大幅调整的影响。周四A股28个行业中11个上涨，17个下跌。其中电信、钢铁和采掘行业领涨，而电气、军工和家用电器领跌。港股主要指数下跌均在1个百分点左右，恒生12个综合行业全线下跌，原材料和科技行业跌幅居前。北上和南下资金净流入分别为15.2亿人民币和4.4亿港币。

中国经济仍在扩张区间。6月1日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）录得52，较4月微升0.1个百分点，为2021年以来最高。5月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）录得55.1，较4月的高点56.3有所下滑，但仍超过50，服务行业已连续13个月在扩张区间。支撑5月经营活动扩张的因素是销售持续增长。调查样本企业反映，中国成功遏制疫情，客户需求得以继续复苏；同时，还有企业提到新产品问世促进了销售。财新PMI主要衡量的是中小企业以及私营企业的状况，而中国官方PMI主要是衡量大型企业和国有企业的状况。5月份中国官方制造业和非制造业PMI也都在扩张区间。但是无论是官方还是财新PMI都显示外需订单的回落。未来外贸出口能否在内需回落的情况下支撑中国经济增长需要观察。美国小非农就业数据超预期。美国自动数据处理公司自动发布的私营部门就业数据被称为“小非农”，一般在每月第一周的周三发布，而非农就业数据在每月第一周的周五发布。因此，小非农就业数据常常被视为对非农就业数据的一个指引。但事实上二者有时候差异巨大。五月小非农显示美国私营部门就业增加了978,000，较4月份的654,000大幅上涨，为2020年6月以来的最大增幅。受此消息刺激，美元指数上涨至90以上，同时黄金等贵金属和铜等工业金属价格大幅下挫。美股开盘大跌，但随后反弹。截止收盘道指和标普500小幅下跌，而纳指跌幅较大。周五将发布的非农就业数据将会对市场走向产生重要影响。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Thursday. The financing balance ofA-share in total reached above RMB 1.7 trillion, which caused some concerns among investors. Last time the financing balance above RMB 1.7 trillion was during April to June in 2015, just before the big crash of A-share. However, in 2015 the financing balance rose from RMB 1 trillion to RMB 1.7 trillion in only a few months. This time the financing balance grew gradually year-to-date and we believe it would not cause big turbulence in the market. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 1.52 billion and HK$ 440 million.

China economy is still expanding but export demand is weakening. Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 52, the highest reading year-to-date.Caixin service PMI in May was 55.1, down from 56.3 in April but still above 50,which is the threshold for expansion. Caixin service PMI has remained above 50 for 13 months in a row. The earlier released official manufacturing and service PMI showed that China’s economy is expanding. Yet both official and Caixin PMI revealed that export demand is dwindling. Whether the export demand can make up the slowing domestic demand is the key to China’s economic growth in 2021.

ADP data boosted the USdollar. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Company released jobs data, showing that the US economy added a total of 978,000 jobs in May. This is the biggest monthly increase since June 2020. The US dollar went strong at this news and gold and metals dropped sharply. Dow and SP 500 fell slightly while Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Market focus is on the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. If the data is better than expected Fed would begin to taper very soon. ADP measures the employment situation in private sectors while non-farm payroll measures the employment in both public and private sectors. ADP data is usually taken as a bellweather of non-farm payroll. But sometimes these two sets of data diverge.

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