周一A股上涨，港股下跌。A股和港股并未受到上周五美股上涨的影响，开盘下跌。A股因为本周有巨额解禁以及周末宣布的部分上市公司大股东减持的消息而承压，港股则因为广州疫情扩散的影响而下跌。北上和南下资金分别净流出39.7亿人民币和14.5亿港币。5月以美元计价的出口金额同比增速为27.9%，低于市场预期，概因广州和深圳疫情对港口处理货物的能力造成影响。疫情偶发不断，对经济的负面影响也持续存在，这在一定程度上也扰乱了经济自身的周期性规律。未来经济的好转需要疫情完全处于控制之下，而这需要疫苗接种率达到80%的水平，我国可能年底前才可能做到。

高通胀将挤破资产泡沫。通胀在股票市场已经到了让人谈虎色变的程度。但通胀并非一无是处。在经济复苏阶段，通胀上升其实反应旺盛的需求。一般而言，3%以下的通胀水平是温和的，可以接受的。就如同美国财政部长耶伦所说，过去10多年来，美联储一直在与通缩对抗，通胀的到来有利于美国经济。超过3%的通胀一般被视为恶性通货膨胀。恶性通货膨胀通常会扰乱正常的经济运行秩序，抑制消费，同时引发收入分配的不均衡。所以，各国政府都会打压恶性通货膨胀。美国4月消费者价格指数为4.2%，已经达到恶性通货膨胀的区间。4月个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）同比上涨3.58%，而核心PCE上涨3.06%，连续4个月超出市场预期，也超过了美联储设定的2%的通胀目标。本周将发布5月份的通胀数据，如超出预期，对美联储的宽松货币政策将会构成一定程度的压力。通胀的上涨通常伴随着利率的上升，而利率上升对高估值股票会构成压力。上世纪70年代的漂亮50泡沫破裂后，其估值从高达90多倍下跌到10多倍，其中一个重要因素就是通胀上升导致利率上升，从而刺穿了估值的泡沫。所以，高估值的股票有较大风险。此轮经济复苏过程中通胀到底涨到什么水平以及利率能够上到多高是未知的。但历史经验看，任何泡沫都会破灭,只是何时破灭无法确定。

美股科技股上涨，周期股回落。联储议息会议前市场谨慎。G7会议决定全球征收15% 的最低所得税率打击大型科技股，因其当前缴纳税率低于15%。

On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell.  In A-share some high-valued stocks announced that major shareholders will sell stocks. In HK market the pandemic in Guangdong Province caused market concern on economic recovery. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 3.97 billion and HK$ 1.45 billion respectively.

The high inflation would cause the asset bubble to burst.  Inflation has become the top concern for investors worldwide. Yet when economy is recovering inflation actually reflects strong demand. And if inflation is below 3% it is acceptable. As Yellen, the Ministry of Finance in the US, said on Monday that inflation is good for the US economy. After all, the Federal Reserve of the US fought with deflation over the last decade in vain. But if inflation is above 4% it is called hyperinflation and is usually considered as vicious. Governments would take measures to fight the hyperinflation as it would cause disorder of economy including pressing demand and unfair income allocation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) in April into the hyperinflation levels. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation benchmark that Fed follows, rose 3.58% yoy andcore PCE rose 3.06% yoy in April. Both are higher than the 2% target set by Fed.Next week CPI in May would be released. If that’s higher than market expected,the Fed is under pressure to take back liquidity. High inflation usually drives up interest rate, which would cause stock valuation to fall. A case in point is the Nifty-Fifty in the 1970s, when the hyperinflation caused interest rate to fly and the Nifty-Fifty’s valuation to fall from 90x price-to-earnings ratio （PE） to 10x PE in ten years. We don’t know how high the inflation would rise ultimately as well as the interest rate. But high-valued stocks would come under pressure with the inflation and interest rate going up. Bubbles will burst for sure with the interest rate climbing.  

Tech stocks rose while cyclical sectors fell in the US.  Market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting next week. 

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