周二A股和港股均下跌。A股食品饮料板块下跌4.2%, 为跌幅最大的行业，其次是有色金属和化工；而国防军工和汽车行业领涨。近期，A股一些热门板块不断调整，对投资情绪有较大打击。港股12个综合行业3个上涨，9个下跌。其中地产建筑、金融和公用事业上涨，原材料和综合行业领跌。北上资金净流入3亿人民币，南下资金继续净流出,净流出金额为16.6亿港币。

靠信仰支撑的股价迟早会下跌。A股有些板块就是靠信仰来支撑的。之所以这么说是因为在估值高达几十倍、上百倍市盈率的时候还有人认为这是价值投资。这其实不是对价值投资的信仰，而是对投机的信仰。这些板块的调整也不是意料之外，而是情理之中。稍微有点常识的人都会知道，任何公司的盈利都不可能长期保持高增速，更不用说100%的利润增速了。如果能够这样，人类早就可以移民火星了。正是因为我们还在地球上，人类的认知还停留在常识层面，价值投资就是长期投资最好的方法。企业的估值水平要对应其盈利增速。而这个盈利增速应该是中长期的盈利增速，而不是一两年的盈利增速。2008年全球金融危机以来，因为宏观经济增长乏力，股市对成长的稀缺性给予了很高的估值溢价。当然，对于趋势投资者而言，这些都不是重点。重点是短期股价有没有很强的上涨动力，这个动力可以来自各个方面：政策面、资金面和企业的短期盈利增速。A股市场趋势投资者众多，大家对一些板块的认知很容易达成一致推动板块上涨。趋势的终止也往往是由多种因素推动的，业绩不达预期、实控人减持以及资金面收紧等。趋势一旦失去了动力，股价下跌也是很凌厉的。年初以来，我们看到各种热门股在短时间内被腰斩，就是因为趋势投资者迅速抛弃这类股票造成的。对投机的信仰当然可以有，不过，要提防的是股价上涨容易，下跌更容易。

美股科技股继续上涨。因美国疾控中心放松对61个国家的旅游限制，航空股上涨。美国4月份的空缺职位数达到930万，继3月之后再度创出2000年以来的新高。美经济复苏持续，关注下周美联储的议息会议。

On Tuesday bothA-share rose and HK stocks fell.  Spirits stocks in A-share dropped sharply andwas the worst-performing sector. In HK market raw material and conglomeratessector fell the most while property and financials rose the most. North-bound capitalsaw net outflow of RMB 300 million. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$ 1.66billion, the second-day net outflow in a row.

Those stocks supported by pure belief are doomed to fall. In stock markets there are some stocks and sectors whose prices are purely supported by the belief that they would go up. These stocks are doomed to fall sooner or later. It sounds absurd that buying a stock whose price-to-earnings ratio above 100x is based on the principles of value investment. Common sense tells us that a company can grow its earnings at 100% for a couple of years but not for a long time. If a company can grow earnings at 100% per annum for years, the world would change dramatically and human could even live in the Mars. From the 2009 global financial crises, the world economy grew at low rates for years. Investors hence provided high premium to growth stocks as growth becomes scarcity. Another reason is that there are a lot of trend-followers in the stock markets. They only chase those stocks with possible catalysts from policy, sector and fundamentals.The stock prices would rise very fast when investors reach a consensus. But they would fall quickly as well when the catalysts disappear or negative catalysts come up. Year-to-date a lot of hot stocks have witnessed their prices to behalved due to that their earnings are disappointed, policy changes or liquidity crunch. Speculation is a reasonable way to make money in the stock market. Yet it is worth reminding that speculation has its own risks. Value investment has proved to be more resilient.  Picking stocks from common sense is a good way to defend the market turbulence.

The US stocks were mixed.  Tech stocks continued to rise as 10-year treasury yield fell. The US job openings in April reached a new high from 2000.

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