周三A股上涨，港股微跌。A股申万28个行业中18个上涨，10个下跌。其中钢铁、化工和采掘涨幅居前，而休闲服务、商业贸易和非银金融跌幅居前。港股12个综合行业中9个上涨，其中能源、医疗保健和电讯行业涨幅居前，而金融、科技和非必需消费业下跌。国家统计局发布的五月份消费者价格指数同比上涨1.3%，低于预期；而生产者价格指数同比增速9%，为2008年8月以来最高增速，超出预期。消费者价格指数涨幅低于预期主要是生猪价格下跌幅度过大造成的，我们认为一轮猪周期还没有走完，猪价同比跌幅应至少延续到3季度末，拖了消费者价格指数同比涨幅持续低于预期。而生产者价格指数的上涨主要是因为上游周期股上涨造成的。下半年生产者价格指数很可能持续保持在高位，利好上游周期股。同时，名义GDP增速也将抬升。

美联储不可能完成的使命。美联储将在下周议息会议上讨论削减债券购买计划。这个讨论的过程将持续到7月份。目前，至少有5位美联储官员表达了需要削减债券购买的意向。市场预计美联储将会在9-11月份之间宣布削减债券购买计划，而实施等到12月或明年1月份。削减债券购买计划不意味着美联储不购买债券，美联储将会继续购买债券直到2022年，只不过购买的规模缩小了，当前每月购买1200亿美金债券。美联储将致力于避免产生2013年的债券缩减恐慌，即时任美联储主席伯南克暗示将进行债券削减后，美国国债收益率大幅上扬导致市场大幅调整。美联储认为当时之所以市场会如此反应是因为市场预期美联储削减债券购买之后就会加息，而这一次，美联储将会明确传达削减债券购买计划的经济条件和加息的经济条件是完全不同的，从而达到抑制国债收益率上涨的目的。但如果通胀持续上升，这个使命可能无法完成。

美股下跌。美国总统拜登与共和党人商讨的基建计划失败，受益于基建计划的工业股指数下跌1%。10年国债收益率跌到1.5%以下，为五月以来的首次，受此影响，金融股下跌。市场都在等待今晚发布的五月份的消费者价格指数数据，据此判断美联储何时收紧QE政策。

On Wednesday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Consumer Price Index rose 1.3% year-on-year (yoy)in May, lower than expected due to that swine prices dropped more than expected. Producer’s Price Index rose 9% yoy, the highest growth rate since August 2008 and mainly due to the high-flying commodity prices. Cyclical sectors rose the most and high-valued stocks fell in A-share. In HK energy sector rose the most while financials fell the most.

Fed’s mission impossible. The Fed is in the early stages of a campaign to ready markets for reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases to stimulate the economy. While the discussion may take place, an announcement of a decision to actually taper would be several months later, perhaps in late summer or early fall. That announcement would then put the beginning of the asset reduction further out,perhaps by year-end or early next year. Since the Fed will taper its purchases,that is, reduce the amount it buys by some amount each month, that timeline would still see the Fed purchasing billions of dollars of assets well into 2022, though at an increasingly slower pace. Behind the glacial pace of reducing asset purchases is a deliberate attempt to avoid another so-called taper tantrum, the sharp spike in bond yields in 2013 that came after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted asset purchases could wind down. One view inside the Fed is that the taper tantrum occurred because it failed to adequately separate in the market’s mind the timelines for hiking interest rates and for reducing asset purchases. This time, the Fed is creating a long runway for tapering, making clear that rate increases only come after this process. It also has set a higher standard of economic improvement required for rate increases than it has for asset purchase reductions. But a persisting inflation would break Fed’s plan.

The US stocks fell.  Market is waiting for the US May CPI data to gauge when the Fed will begin to taper. 

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