周四A股上涨而港股下跌。A股申万28个行业中16个上涨，12个下跌。计算机、电气设备和汽车领涨，而农林牧渔、采掘和房地产领跌。A股核心资产上涨，因美国国债收益率走低。北上资金抢筹，净流入68.1亿人民币。港股12个行业中，6个上涨，6个下跌，其中工业涨幅领先，而原材料和金融行业跌幅领先。

五月广义货币增速触底反弹。五月广义货币（M2）同比增速为8.3%，较4月份的8.1%上升0.2个百分点。考虑到过去10年广义货币同比增速最低都在8%以上，广义货币同比增速应已见底回升。但如果中国经济潜在增速持续下行，不排除广义货币同比增速创出低于8%的水平。狭义货币（M1）同比增速为6.1%，较4月份的6.2%下跌0.1个百分点。社会融资规模存量同比增速为11%。无论是狭义货币还是社融存量，从去年2季度到4季度都处在同比增速较高的水平。因此，未来狭义货币和社融存量增速同比仍将持续走低，除非央行再度放水。宽信用、紧货币的状况有可能会持续到年底。

美国五月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨5%。这是2008年8月以来最高的月度涨幅。核心消费者价格指数同比上涨3.7%，是1992年以来的最大月度涨幅。市场对通胀是暂时的还是持续的有很大分歧。高盛分析师认为通胀是暂时的，随着供应链修复，通胀将会在今年下半年同比增速下行。这也是市场当前共识。但德意志银行分析师则认为上世纪70年的高通涨可能卷土重来，当时的年平均通胀为7%。而通过加息的方法抑制通胀对债务率较高的新兴市场国家是灾难性的。因经济增长将不足以覆盖飞速上涨的融资成本。我们在这次也许不一样中指出，本次美联储收缩流动性将不会造成2013年那样对新兴市场的重大冲击，因通胀高企将导致国债实际收益率下降，有利于股市和新兴市场国家。五月CPI数据出来后，美国债名义和实际收益率均下降。

美科技股领涨三大股指。美两党接近达成缩小版基础设施计划，据称无需加税融资。

On Thursday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly.  Due to the falling US treasury yield, group-holding stocks rallied in A-share. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 6.81billion. 6 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with industrial rising the most and financials falling the most.

Broad money supply in May was higher than expected. Broad money (M2) rose 8.3% year-on-year (yoy), 0.2 percentage point (ppt) higher thanin April. Narrow money (M1) rose 6.1% (yoy), 0.1 ppt lower than in April. As M2 grew at above 8% yoy growth rate over the last ten years, we believe that M2 growth rate should have bottomed up if China’s potential economic growth rate would not fall further from current levels. Aggregate social financing rose 11% yoy. Both M1 and aggregate money supply grew at high rates from 2Q-4Q2020 in order to save economy from the pandemic. Hence, both would see their yoy growth rate slow down till the year-end.

This time should be different. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inMay in the US came in at 5% yoy, the highest monthly yoy growth rate since August 2008. The core CPI, which excludes the energy and food prices, rose 3.7% yoy and was the highest since 1992.  Whether high CPI would be transitory or here to stay is different among investment banks. Goldman Sachs believed that with supply chain recovery CPI would edge lower in 2H2021. While Deutsche Bank worried that the high inflation in the 1970s would come back again when the CPI  grew atan average 7% per year. DB particularly picked out emerging markets as the main victims as the high interest rate pushed by high inflation would make debt a bigger burden for emerging markets. We have concluded that this time the US treasury real yield would go down due to the high inflation. This is actually good for stocks and emerging markets.

The US stocks rose. Tech stocks rallied. The two parties reached consensus on infrastructure plan without raising taxes. 

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