A股和港股均下跌。A股申万28个行业中仅3个上涨，分别为电子、汽车和国防军工，25个下跌的行业中，休闲服务、有色金属和钢铁跌幅居前。港股12个综合行业中只有非必需消费和工业行业上涨，其余10个行业下跌，其中原材料和医疗保健跌幅居前。北上资金净流出51.5亿人民币，南下资金净流出4亿港币。一方面有报道国储拟抛售储备铜给下游终端企业，并将持续到年底，导致有色金属行业大幅调整；另一方面，前期涨幅较大的板块面临获利资金了解的压力。

下半年经济会滞涨吗？我们认为全球经济不会是滞涨的走势，因为发达国家3、4季度还会因为疫情解除而导致经济脉冲向上。考虑到美国老百姓手里巨额的现金，美国经济甚至有过热的可能。欧洲经济也不会差，最新结束的欧央行会议维持当前债券购买规模，显示政策对欧元区经济的支持将会持续。中国当前处在经济周期的顶部因而类似滞涨。但因为目前仅仅是生产领域的通胀，其传导到消费领域至少需要半年的时间，因此，也只是类滞涨。上世纪70年代美国的滞涨一方面是制造业优势不再，另一方面第三次工业革命到了停滞阶段，叠加美联储在60年代不断放水，导致货币供应量大增，同时因为石油危机，造成石油价格飙升。大放水下通胀预期抬升造成工资成本螺旋式上涨导致通胀持续上升。因此，滞涨不是想来就来的，它的发生也需要天时、地利和人和。美联储从2008年全球金融危机发生后大放水直至2013年开始回收流动性。但到2020年新冠危机发生之前虽加息十次，联邦基金利率从0.25%上升到2.25%，对照2008年全球金融危机发生之前的3-5%。美联储缩减了资产负债表从4万多亿美金缩减到3.3万亿左右，而金融危机发生之前为8000亿的水平。新冠危机之后的放水更是史无前例，美联储资产负债表扩大到6万多亿。从流动性角度，跟上世纪70年代有点像。但商品是否短缺以及经济增速会否下行，可能需要我们边走边看。

美股高位回落。联储议息会议前投资者态度谨慎。美国5月零售销售月率实际公布为-1.30%，预期为-0.7%。

Both A-share and HK stocks fell on Monday. Due to that the National Reserve Bureau will release its stocks of copper, aluminum and zinc, the commodity stocks fell sharply.

Will the stagnation come again in 2H2021?  The probability of stagnation in 2H2021 is low.Economies in developed countries would continue to recover given that most of the adults would be vaccinated in 3Q or 4Q this year. The recent data showed that entertainment and traveling demand has gone up quickly. In China while economic growth might slow down gradually in 2H2021, the inflation pressure is only in producer’s side. The consumer-side inflation is still yet to come. And it takes at least 6 months for inflation to transfer from producer’s side to consumer side. So China will not see stagnation either. Stagnation came up in the 1970’s due to multiple factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve had injected big liquidity into the financial markets again and again. So the liquidity was quite abundant if not excessive. Secondly, the US was losing its competitive advantages in manufacturing and was faced with challenges to look for growth in economy. Thirdly, the oil crises led to oil and other related commodities shortage. Inflation expectation was pushed up by wage-cost spiral rise. The Federal Reserve injected liquidity after 2008 global financial crises and began to take back in the mid-2013. Before COVID-19 crises, it had raised interest rate for 10 times and brought Fed fund rate from 0.25% to the highest level 3.25%. This compared with 3-5% before 2008 financial crises. It also reduced its balance sheet from more than US$ 4 trillion to US$3.3 trillion. But before the financial crises, its balance sheet was only US$ 800 billion. We deem that liquidity abundance was comparable to that in the 1970’s. Let’s observe how the economy will evolve and whether there would be commodity shortage in 2H2021.

The US stocks fell on Monday. Tech stocks fell the most as market was nervous before the Federal Reserve Open Market Conference.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。