周三抱团股和有色股齐跌。A股和港股均延续前一交易日的跌势。申万28个行业中仅4个上涨，分别为银行、家用电器、房地产和建筑装饰，均为低估值价值股，而抱团股普跌，抱团股集中的创业板指数下跌4%。港股12个综合行业中只有金融和公用事业业上涨，能源行业持平，其余9个行业下跌。因国储抛售基本金属，原材料行业领跌两市。北上资金净流出4.05亿人民币，南下资金净流出26.4亿港币。5月工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资的增速都低于预期。疫情导致的不确定性依然困扰经济，企业资本开支和雇佣方面都相对谨慎，而最终的影响落到了消费上，这也是疫情以来消费持续低于预期的一个主要原因。

理性投机可不可取？所谓理性投机就是机构投资者炒股票，薅羊毛。本应践行价值投资理念的机构投资者也像散户一样炒股票不免让人觉得惊讶。但A股市场波动较大，这样做也无可厚非。海外知名机构投资者也有在A股炒某著名消费股。在A股市场要适者生存。不过，散户炒股票基本不看投资价值。机构投资者炒股票还要以价值投资为名，这就有点让人匪夷所思。短炒还用看价值吗？另一方面，运用资金优势炒股票似乎有操纵股价的嫌疑。机构投资者如果能够真正秉持价值投资理念的，就应该选出低估值、有业绩支撑的股票。顺便说一下：这样的股票在A股有很多，能容纳大资金。抱团在几十只市盈率高企的股票上既不是价值投资，也不符合股票市场规律。信用周期下行期，成长板块的估值应该是被压缩的。而硬靠着资金优势支撑估值，迟早有一天会发现不过是一厢情愿。特别是在通胀高企利率上升的环境下。历史看，股市该来的调整迟到过但没有缺席过。本来在较长时间内能够完成的调整如果在较短的时间完成，那么调整就会十分剧烈。就如同周三在A股市场发生的情况。全球通胀上行，美联储也将收缩流动性。未来股市波动可能还会不断上演。你准备好了吗？

美联储行动胜于言语。美联储点阵图显示2023年加息两次，暗示其认为通胀绝不是暂时的。美股和黄金大跌，国债收益率和美元大涨。通胀的长期存在将改变以往低利率、低通胀的投资环境，成长股将跑输价值股。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Tuesday. The group-holding stocks fell the most. Chinext Index fell 4.2%. The news that National Reserve Bureau would release its stocks of copper, aluminum and zinc continued to pressure thecommodity stocks. The industrial value-added, retail sales and fixed asset investment data in May came in lower than expected. The pandemic has impacted the willingness of business owners’ to invest in new capacity and to hire more people. The negative impact ultimately showed up in consumption. That’s why consumption has continuously fallen short of expectation since the pandemic. 

How to look at rational speculation?  That the institutional investors who should stick to value investment principles speculate in the stock market is called rational speculation. While it is understandable to do so as A-share is pretty volatile, it is misleading to label the behavior as value investment. As the institutional investors have big capital advantages it is a question whether they manipulate stock market by rational speculation. To stick to value investment, one should look for those stocks with low valuation and good fundamentals. With credit cycle going down the growth stocks’ valuation would be pressured and value stocks would perform well. With the liquidity being taken back the stock market would fluctuate more. Be prepared for that.

The Federal Reserve’s action speaks louder than words. The Fed dot plot chart indicated that Fed expects two rate hikes before the end of 2023. Also the Fed raised its inflation forecast up by 1 percentage point to 3.4% in 2021.  The Fed’s move showed that they are expecting a higher and lasting inflation rather than temporary. The US stocks and gold fell sharply while the treasury yield and the US dollar rose. We have indicated that the low-interest rate and low inflation investment environment has changed to high-interest rate and high inflation one. In this circumstance value stocks outperform growth stocks.

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