上周（下同）全球普跌。全球16个国家和地区的重要指数中只有4个上涨，12个下跌。其中澳大利亚、中国台湾、韩国和日本股票上涨，而美国道指、标普和俄罗斯指数股票跌幅领先。上证指数、深成指和恒生指数分别下跌1.8%、1.5%和0.1%。A股行业中，23个下跌，仅有5个上涨，分别是电子、国防军工、通信、综合和汽车，休闲服务、钢铁和有色金属领跌。港股12个行业中仅有2个上涨，分别为工业和非必需消费业，而跌幅居前的行业为原材料、能源和地产建筑业。北上资金净流出50亿人民币，南下资金净流出24亿港币。

市场不相信美联储能够退出流动性宽松政策。美联储上周鸽变鹰引起全球大部分股票市场下跌。但5年期隔夜指数掉期（隔夜指数掉期 Overnight Index Swap是将隔夜利率交换成为若干固定利率的利率掉期，是一家金融机构利用手头资金向另一家金融机构借出隔夜贷款的利率）市场则反应美联储不会退出。该指数掉期利率今年年初为2.4%，但在上周美联储议息会议时仅为1.94%。周五美联储著名鸽派布拉德发表鹰派言论时，仅为1.71%。利率期货市场真是打脸美联储。市场认为美联储无法实际退出宽松的货币政策，一方面因为美国经济已负债累累，当前美国债务占GDP的比例超过100%，而且美国总统拜登还将2022年的财政预算定在6万亿美金，其中大部分将通过举债来融资。另一方面，上一次美联储退出宽松的货币政策也仅是将联邦基金利率提升到2.5%，而且不得不在疫情大规模爆发之前将利率下调到0。如果上一次全球金融危机之后，美联储无法退出宽松的货币政策，为什么这一次就可以退出呢？金融市场对货币政策的敏感性历史来上从没有这么高。美联储的资产负债表已是GDP的40%，支撑了资产价格的上涨，而消费者依靠股市的财富效应加大支出来支撑经济。所以，任何股市的调整都会对美国经济产生负面影响。股市的狂欢有可能会继续。对利率敏感的行业最受益，如科技。但长期看，这会导致滞涨。通胀仍是一个威胁。因此，贵金属、农产品和大宗商品仍将胜出。而亚洲和欧洲的股市也将有较好表现。

美股上周五大跌。美联储官员认为加息有可能提前到2022年。

Last week most of the global stock indexes fell. 12 out of the 16 global major indexes fell while only 4 rose, which were Australia, China Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. DOW, SP 500 and Russia RTS Index fell the most. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index fell1.8%, 1.5% and 0.1% respectively. In A-share 5 out of 28 sectors rose while the remaining 23 fell with electronic sector rising the most and non-ferrous metal falling the most. 2 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with industrial sector rising the most. North-bound and south-bound capital net outflow was RMB5billion and HK$2.4 billion respectively.

Market predicts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can’t exit from QE.  Last week Fed turned into hawkish from dovish. However, Overnight Index Swap (OIS) market did not expect that Fed could exit from QE. OIS rate was 2.4% earlier this year when long-run rate rose. It was 1.9% last week when the Fed Open Market Conference convened and 1.7% last Friday when James Bullard, Louisiana Chairman of Fed, who was famous for being dovish, turned into hawkish. The OIS market told Fed that they just did not believe they could exit QE. On one hand, the US is highly indebted with debt-to-GDP ratio is above 40%. Moreover, President Biden set fiscal budget at US$ 6 trillion for 2022, most of which would be raised via debt. On the other hand, the Fed only raised interest rate to 2.5% after 2008 global financial crises and had to cut it to zero due to the pandemic crises in 2020.Why should one assume that Fed can exit QE as it didn't accomplish it in the last crisis? As such the stock market can continue to enjoy the abundant liquidity,especially for rate-sensitive sectors such as technology along with Asian and European stocks. Yet inflation would still be there. And precious metal, commodities and agricultural products would perform well.

The US stocks fell sharply last Friday. James Bullard said that the Fed could raise interest rate in 2022 rather than in 2023. This triggered market sell-off and VIX index rose sharply. 

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