牛市中的熊市。年初至今，申万28个行业中20个上涨，8个下跌。这八个行业分别是家用电器、非银金融、农林牧渔、国防军工、房地产、传媒、商业贸易和通信。这些板块在牛市里走出了熊市。这里面不乏白马股，如格力电器和美的集团，二者的股价年初至今分别下跌17.5%和25.4%。无论是格力还是美的年初至今都曾经抛出巨量回购股份计划，但难阻股价持续下滑。原因何在呢？过去两年涨幅过大透支了估值。格力在2019年上涨了91%，2020年股价基本持平。而美的2020年上涨了73.6%。美的和格力当前的静态市盈率分别为17.6和12.8倍，均处在历史较高水平。所以，未来股价的走势还需要看基本面能否有较好的表现，否则估值还有很大的下调空间。当然，下跌的股票并不完全是因为过去两年涨幅过大，比如非银金融、房地产、传媒等。这些行业的股价2020年没有什么表现。2021年股价持续调整，一方面是行业自身的原因，如传媒，另一方面是受到政策的打压，如房地产。但有的行业比如券商的持续低迷其实是反应了资金的偏好。所以，这些持续走弱的板块何时能再度走强受到多方面因素的制约，包括资金的风险偏好，行业基本面的好转以及政策的放松。对于那些市盈率已经处在历史较低水平的公司，可能在接下来会有较高的回报。杰里米·西格尔曾经说过，投资于市盈率最低水平的公司，换句话说，投资于增长预期较温和的股票的投资组合，远胜于投资于高价格、高预期的公司的投资组合。因此，对于那些涨势如虹、似乎牛市永在的板块的公司，可以采取回避的态度。

周一A股上涨，港股下跌，而美股大涨。中国人民银行发文表示市场流动性充足，A股上涨，成长股涨幅居前，上证50跌幅居前。年初至今，上证50下跌5.95%，领跌A股指数；而创成长指数上涨16.82%,领涨A股。无论A股还是港股，周期股都跌幅居前，一些投资人认为在中国政府的打压和美联储收缩流动性的双重压力下，周期的行情已经结束。美股大涨，道指创下三月以来表现最好的一天。美联储官员周一表示当前的重要问题是收缩债券购买规模的时间和节奏。

The bear in a bull market. Year-to-date 20 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with the remaining 8 sectors falling.These sectors are home appliance, non-bank financials, farming and fishery,military defense, property, media and commerce and trade. Take two stocks in home appliance as an example, Geli Appliance and Midea Group. Geli and Midea each saw their stock prices plunge by 17.5% and 25.4% despite that both of them have issued stock repurchase plan at a big scale. Geli and Midea is now valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8x and 17.6x, the relatively high levels in their history. Geli’s stock rose 92% in 2019 and remained athigh levels in 2020. Midea rose 73.6% in 2020. That should be the reason that both of them fell in 2021: the high-valuation combined with deteriorating fundamentals. Other sectors fell due to different reasons. Some are under policy pressure such as property. Others struggled with growth challenges due to sector development bottlenecks. But for those whose valuation has fallen to historical low levels, they might present good investment opportunities. Jeremy Siegel said in his book “The Future For Investors” that investment return from investing in a portfolio of low-valued stocks could achieve higher return than investing in a portfolio with high-valued stocks. The reason is that low valuation usually reflects low expectations and only a modest earnings growth could boost valuation. And the high valuation reflects high expectations and it turns out that earnings miss expectation in some cases. Hence, for those high-valued stocks whether their earnings growth can match with their valuation would be a key to their stock prices. 

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. The People’s Bank of China said that liquidity is abundant, which provides confidence to the market. SSE 50 Index fell the most while Chinext Momentum Index rose the most. Cyclicalstocks fell the most in both A-share and HK market.

The US stocks rallied. Reopening stocks and cyclical sectors rose the most.  

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