如何选择价值股？有一种观点认为在价值股里选股比在成长股里选股更难，因为价值股覆盖了好和坏的公司。这种观点印证了我们在6月23日发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号里的文章乌鸡如何变凤凰--论价值陷阱中所指出的，很多价值股其实是价值陷阱，有各种各样的问题使所谓价值股的估值并不像表面看上去那么便宜。说到底，价值陷阱是毁灭价值的。要找到创造价值的股票，最终还是要看公司盈利增长的速度和发展前景。因此，价值股选股有一点跟成长股选股是一样的，就是看公司未来成长性。但成长股通常估值较高，而价值股在危机或者企业出问题的时候估值都较低，反应投资人对其未来发展的低预期。此时如果投资者能够买入并持有，就可以在未来乘着公司基本面改善的东风而获得较好收益。但是，价值股通常都不会一步到达估值底部。当年，巴菲特买入华盛顿邮报，就用了三年的时间，股价在此期间下降了50%。所以，价值投资者经常买在半山腰而不是绝对的底部，是因为当股价看似低估之后其实还有很大下跌空间。但当最后一个看空的人卖出股票后，股价就开始上涨了。所以，价值股里面选股很重要，买入时机也很重要。当然，如果你的持有期限也像巴菲特一样是永远，则买入时机就不用太计较了。有的投资人认为在成长股选股很容易，但是就如同我们在增长率陷阱中所指出的，投资者对成长股的高预期正式成长股收益落后于价值股的主要原因。就如同牛市里投资人往往亏钱一样，成长股也会诱惑投资人买入，但因其估值太高而导致最后的收益不如人意。所以，挖掘价值股还是比较安全的投资策略。找一下那些还躺在角落里的价值股，说不定就是未来的白酒股。

周二A股和港股均上涨，美股涨跌不一。第五次药品集采降价幅度在56%，与以往集采降价幅度基本一致。但受情绪影响，A股和港股医药板块均小幅下跌。A股白酒股跌幅领先，山西汾酒下跌超8%。白酒股经过连续几年的上涨，股价泡沫化程度较高，需要回归到与基本面相匹配的水平。美股纳斯达克指数再创出历史新高，道指和标普500小幅回落。市场认为美联储在平衡通胀过高和经济过热之间走钢丝绳。如果未来通胀和国债收益率走高，则市场将会面临调整的压力。

How to pick value stocks? Some investors think that it is more challenging to pick value stocks than growth stocks. The reason is that there are both good and bad companies in value stocks. This coincides with our view in “How the black chicken turns into phoenix” published in our official wechat—Maple Insights, in which we illustrate four types of value traps that destroy value. To find those companies that can create value the key is whether these companies can grow their earnings strongly in the future. Therefore, to find growth is one thing in common between value stocks and growth stocks. However, growth stocks usually enjoy high valuation. Yet value stocks would have much lower valuation when they encounter difficulties in growing earnings. For value investors they usually buy value stocks when the stocks become low-valued. But low-valued stocks still have a lot room to fall further. Take the example that Buffett invested in The Washington Post.He bought the stock for three years in a row and during the period the stock prices fell 50% maximum. So it is hard to buy a stock at the lowest point of stock price. But if your holding period is as long as forever like that of Buffett the timing to buy a stock would not have a significant impact on your investment return.  To pick growth stocks the one challenge is that their valuation is rather expensive.This would negatively affect investment return. So investing in a value stock would bear smaller risk than buying a growth stock.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose while the US stocks were mixed. The fifth national centralized purchasing of medicine concluded with the average medicine prices down by 56%, which is inline with the previous national centralized purchasing. Medicine sector in both A-share and HK market fell due to sentiment. Liquor stocks in A-share fell sharply. This sector has performed well over the last couple of years. Some stocks are in bubbles and need to fall to be in line with fundamentals. Nasdaq rose while SP500 and DOW fell slightly. Market is concerned that treasury yield would go up again.  

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