华尔街没有暑假。约翰·加尔布雷斯在《1929年大崩盘》中描述了1929年前股市过度繁荣的种种表现，从为在股市低迷时为投机者提供杠杆资金的国民城市银行董事局主席查尔斯·E·米切尔，到对钢铁股不懂装懂的家庭妇女，从刊登在《妇女家庭报》上的文章《大家都能成为富人》，到屡次看空、屡次失败的《纽约时报》，刻画了一幅投机氛围浓厚的股市众生相。让人印象深刻的还有美国参议院委员会诘问高盛公司的创始人之一萨克斯关于高盛在牛市期间创建的高盛贸易公司。该公司从事投资信托业务，即为投资人提供杠杆资金参与股市。其IPO价格为104美元，牛市崩盘几年后该公司股价跌到了1.75 美元。华尔街没有暑假，但到了1929年秋天就迎来了史上最严重的股市暴跌和经济萧条。虽然美国经历过1929年股市大崩盘，但并不能阻止1987年黑色星期一和2008年全球金融危机的发生。为什么呢？因为人性是相通的，无论是生活在20世纪20年代还是80年代，抑或是21世纪。人类不曾从历史中吸取任何教训，因为我们没办法杜绝人性。近期，某热门餐饮股股价被腰斩再腰斩，创始人坦诚不能够保证公司未来业绩的持续增长。该公司去年疫情刚结束就大干快上，大举提升开店步伐。一年时间过去，发现过于密集开店造成翻台率下跌、新开门店爬坡期过长，而为了提高利润而对菜品加价、降低菜品质量等举措加剧了顾客的流失率。该公司在股价巅峰时对应的市净率接近40倍，而现在16倍的市净率其实也不低。不过回望山巅，还是觉得40倍的市净率真是不可思议。这种感觉就像在1929年股市崩盘之后的几年，持有高盛贸易公司股份的投资人（如果还持有的话），怎么也无法想象这个公司股价曾经高达100多美金。是的，有的时候在股市赚不到钱就是想象力不够。

周四A股和港股均小幅上涨，美股再创新高。央行三个月以来首次加大逆回购资金量，以缓解季末资金紧张局面。A股成交量连续5天超过万亿人民币。美国总统拜登与两党达成基建刺激计划。虽然刺激规模为1万亿美金，但是加上额外支出有可能达到2万亿美金。美股标普500和纳斯达克指数创出历史新高。

There is no summer break in Wall Street. John Galbraith, the famous economist, presented a picture of a booming stock market before the big crash in 1929 in “The Great Crash 1929”. He depicted how the big shot and the common people behaved as well as those media that expected either a bull or a bear market. One part is about Goldman Sachs Trading Company, which was listed during the bull time before the big crash with IPO price at US$ 104 per share. Several years after the big crash, the stock was trading at US$1.75. There was no summer break in Wall Street in 1929. Yet the stock market soon saw the fiercest crash in history and the economy entered the most severe depression that ever happened. Although the US stock market experienced the big crash in 1929, it suffered the Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Recession in 2008. The reason behind is that human nature has never changed whether it was in the 1920’s, 1980’s or the 21st century. Recently a famous catering stock listed in HK saw its stock price fall by more than 70% over the last couple of months. The stock price boomed last year due to its big expansion plan all of China. But it turned out that this strategy was wrong as more new stores caused table turnover rate to drop and it took longer time for new stores to become profitable. Moreover, it raised products’ prices and lowered their quality, resulting in the customer loss. The company was valued at price-to-book (PB) ratio of 40x when its stock was at peak levels. Now it was valued at 16x PB, which is still pretty high.The founder of the company recently admitted that he did not expect a sustainable earnings growth in the near future. That’s quite true. A company can grow its earnings at a high speed for some time but not all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose slightly while the US stocks rallied. The People’s Bank of China released liquidity via national debt reverse repurchasing to deal with  the liquidity demand at the end of June. President Biden stroke the infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. 

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