大金融和地产板块。金融中的保险、银行和券商自新冠疫情发生以来分别上涨0.3%、17%和26%，而房地产下跌6%。而涨幅居前的旅游综合、电源设备和医疗服务分别上涨219%、179%和169%，差距甚大。股价上涨有上涨的原因，下跌也有下跌的原因。作为传统行业，大金融和地产板块被认为发展前景与新兴行业相比没有吸引力。确实，与新能源车的每年30%的增速相比，无论是大金融和地产板块都无法实现如此高的业绩增速。但估值水平其实也反应了市场的预期。保险、银行和券商板块的静态市盈率都处在历史较低水平，分别为1.6、0.72和1.8倍，分别位于历史上4.3%、8%和48%的分位。房地产静态市净率0.96倍，位于过去20年来0.05%的分位，基本上就是历史最低值。所有的行业都曾经经历过市场最悲观的时刻以及最乐观的时刻。白酒板块也一样。在2013年板块估值最低时曾达到2.6倍，当前为11.6倍，处在历史96.2%的分位。悲观和乐观都反应在股价里面了。二者的区别是如果前者业绩有一点超预期，股价就会大幅上涨；而后者业绩有点低于预期，股价就会大幅下跌。前者较戴维斯双击，后者较戴维斯双杀。白酒也曾在塑化剂事件及限制公款消费后业绩持续低迷。但2014年随着业绩好转，股价迎来连续几年的上涨。所以，行业都存在低迷期，大金融和地产会否一直低迷下去呢？在当前较低的估值水平下，值得跟踪。

上周全球股市多数上涨。上周全球16个主要国家和地区指数中14个上涨，资源国巴西和澳大利亚下跌。美股涨幅居前，市场从对美联储缩减债券购买规模的恐慌中缓解。受环球股市上涨影响，且中国人民银行释放流动性，A股和港股均上涨，深成指涨幅仅次于道琼斯工业指数，位居16个主要指数涨幅第二名。行业方面，A股钢铁、电气设备和电子涨幅居前；港股原材料、医疗保健和能源涨幅居前。上周北上资金净流入209.7亿人民币，为一个月以来周度资金净流入最大；南下资金净流入50.5亿人民币，结束了连续两周的净流出。上周五发布的5月份美国消费指数物价指数同比上涨3.4%，与市场预期一致，为1992年以来最大幅度上涨。

About the financial sector and property sector. Banking, brokerage and insurance sector along with property sector performed poorly in A-share and HK markets. Take the example of A-share,banking, brokerage and insurance sector rose 26%, 17% and 0.3% respectively from the low in March 2020 to last Friday. Property sector fell 6% during the same period. This compared with leisure service, power supply equipment and medi-care sector that rose 219%, 179% and 169% respectively. Market is pessimistic about the growth prospects of financial and property sector. Yet the valuation has fully reflected this pessimism. The bank, brokerage and insurance sector is valued at 0.72, 1.6 and 1.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB). This put them at the percentile of 8%, 48% and 4.3% in history respectively. Property sector is valued at 0.96x TTW PB, which put it at the percentile of 0.05% over the last 20 years. Every sector has ever experienced low times. The liquor sector was valued at 2.6x TTW PB when it suffered plasticizer affair and the sales drop from restrictions on consumption using public funds in 2013. From 2014 the liquor sector’s earnings growth rate improved gradually and the sector’s stock prices rose from then till now. It is valued at 11.6x TTW PB currently and at 96% percentile in history. Going forward the key is whether liquor sector would see its earnings grow at a high speed. If not, its valuation would come down sharply. As for financial and property sector, if their earnings can surprise to the upside, their valuation would increase along with earnings growth. Pay attention to these sectors’ development from now on.

Major indexes rose globally.14 out of 16 global major indexes rose last week with Brazil and Australia stock index falling. The panic from the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity has relieved to some extent. Both A-share and HK market rose last week as the People’s Bank of China released liquidity. Last week the north-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB21 billion, the largest weekly net inflow in a month. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK $ 5.1 billion, concluding two weeks net outflow in a row. 

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