投机盛行意味着什么？在牛市的后期，投机盛行，IPO市场是一个鲜明的体现。根据彭博数据，今年上半年，全球IPO市场共募集金额3500亿美金，超过去年下半年的2820亿美金，创出历史新高。一些热门概念股涨幅惊人，如新能源概念股三峡能源两周前上市，只用了10个交易日股价上涨就超过200%。快手2021年2月份上市以来虽然股价从最高点下跌50%，但据其发行价仍有50%的上涨空间。当然，也有一些表现较弱的股票。如百度也是在2021年2月份上市，但当前股价较发行价已经跌了40%。IPO市场的火爆反应的是股票市场的热度。在牛市中后期，投资人的情绪亢奋，一些传统的估值方法已经无法衡量热门股票。投资人会找出各种理由支撑股价的上涨。这与互联网泡沫时期对互联网企业的估值如出一辙。这是要小心的时候，而不是要勇敢的时候。特别是当有投资人声称投资不需要看估值的时候，就更要小心了。通常这种言论发出的时候，热门股票见顶也不会远。巴菲特在2000年互联网泡沫破灭之前对投资者说：归根结底，财富只能由企业创造出来，这是唯一的渠道。投资者作为一个整体想要变得富有，只有企业才能让他们达到目的。巴菲特认为许多互联网公司的股票估值实在是太荒唐可笑了。当大量的参与者一起投入一个总数持续增加的游戏，就会创造出一种表面上的真实。这样的情况也可能会持续相当长的时间，但不可能永远持续下去。投机不可能持续，价值投资才可以。

周一A股和港股微跌，美股涨跌不一。疫情对经济复苏股造成压力，航空股和博彩股均下跌。因猪粮价比跌破1:5的预警现，国家将启动生猪收储，养殖股大涨。但猪价并不会因此而止跌，其真正止跌需产能充分去化，而这不仅仅是散户的退出，个别大型养殖场倒闭可能才是猪价止跌的信号。对于吉利汽车撤回A股科创板上市申请，美银证券认为主要原因是吉利汽车决定不收购富豪汽车及其新能源车品牌Zeekr将可能有自身融资计划。美股纳斯达克和标普500再创新高，道指在交通和能源股带动下下跌。美国国债收益率全线下跌，10年期国债收益率再次回落到1.48%，利好科技股。

What does it imply when speculation prevails? Speculation prevails when the bull market goes into the late part. According to Bloomberg, in 1H2021 there was a total of US$ 350 billion raised via IPO worldwide, surpassing the record US$282 billion in 2H2020. Some stocks performed quite well after IPO such as Three Gorges Energy, which rose 200% in just 10 trading days after it was listed two weeks ago. Some performed poorly such as Baidu, whose stock price fell 40% from its IPO price when it was listed in Feb.2021. The booming IPO market reflects investors’ sentiment, which is usually quite hot during the late part of a bull market. The traditional valuation methodology does not work in the hot market. Investors would find a lot of excuses to explain the high valuation of a hot sector or stock. It is actually a signal that danger is looming. Warren Buffett told investors that fortune can only be created by listed companies and investors can become rich only via investing in those companies that can create value. But one should look at valuation when he or she invests in the stock market. In the short run the stock market is a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighting machine. The game that all of the people chase a small number of stocks can last for some time but not for all the time. In summary speculation can not prevail forever but value investment can.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell slightly while the US stocks were mixed on Monday. Due to the spread of Delta variant COVID-19 worldwide gaming and airline stocks fell. China government announced that it would begin to purchase swine as reserve as the ratio of corn-to-pork price fell below the warning line. We judge that pork prices would only rebound when some big swine farm goes bankruptcy. Nasdaq and SP 500 reached another record high while DOW fell dragged down by energy and transportation stocks.  The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.48% once again and boosted tech stocks. Facebook won the antitrust cases that were brought up by the Federal Trade Commission. Stock rose 4% on Monday. 

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