一个笑话。巴菲特曾经在互联网泡沫破灭之前进行过一次公开演讲，他讲了一个笑话。一个石油勘探者死后进了天堂，圣彼得对他说：“你符合所有的条件，但这里人以群分，石油勘探者的居住区已经满了，我没有地方提供给你。”商人问：“您不介意我说五个字吧”。“可以。”于是商人把手拢在嘴边，大声说：“地狱里有油！”所有的石油勘探者都直往下冲，地方被腾空了。圣彼得说好吧，现在这块地方全都是你的了。商人停了一会儿，说：“哦，不了，我还是跟着他们去地狱吧，毕竟空穴不来风。”这个笑话是巴菲特讽刺在股市里随波逐流的投资群体。它永不过时，因为它深刻地揭示了人性。首先，股市里很多投资人并不是运用自己的判断力，或者缺乏判断力，而买入或者卖出股票。即所谓追涨杀跌。其次，牛市或者熊市都会比预期的时间长，因为扭转集体的情绪需要很长的时间。最后，对于真正的价值投资者，在某些时候坚持自己的投资理念通常会遭遇较大的挑战。巴菲特认为自己在互联网泡沫中的投资成绩是不及格的，但是随着互联网泡沫破裂，他的投资业绩再次证明股神就是股神。爱德文·利弗莫尔在《股票大作手回忆录》一书的最后写道：没有人能够持续不断的超越市场。不管一位交易员如何的富有经验，亏钱的可能性总是存在，因为投机不可能100%的安全。任何自然或人为的灾难都不如内幕信息更容易摧毁一个交易员。无论在华尔街还是其他任何地方取得成功都没有容易走的柏油马路。所以，无论投资还是投机，都要对市场保持谦卑。在市场面前，任何人都是渺小的。

 周二A股和港股均下跌，美股微涨。港股周二是期指结算日，市场一般在期指结算日都波动较大。恒生12个综合行业中只有工业上涨，11个行业下跌，能源行业领跌，因油价下跌。A股申万28个行业中只有电气设备、纺织服装和化工上涨，25个行业下跌，国防军工、通信和家用电器领跌。美国知名分析师和投资人担心美联储可能落后于通胀而不得不在未来采取补救措施，而这可能导致经济衰退。但当前的5年和10年期损益平衡通胀率都已经拐头向下，意味着市场并不认为通胀是长期可持续的。

A joke. Warren Buffett told a joke at a speech before the internet bubble burst. The joke goes like this: An oil explorer went to the heaven after he passed away. St. Peter told him that there was no room for him because so many oil explorer were in heaven. He asked to speak five words and then said:there is oil in hell. All of the oil explorers went to the oil at once. OK. Sothis place is all for you, said St. Peter. Oh, no, I’d better go to the hell aswell. This joke is for the stock market and it reveals human nature deeply. Firstly, a lot of investors can’t judge whether the stocks are a buy or sell on their own. They make their decisions purely on the stock price’s up and downs. Secondly, the bull or the bear market can last much longer than expected as it would be hard to turn the hot market to cool and vice versa. Finally, value investors would be faced with big challenges to stick to their investment principles. Buffett considered his investment return unqualified as a professional investor. Yet he then achieved good return after the internet bubble burst and proved what he did in internet bubble was right. Edwin Lefevre wrote at the end of his famous book “Reminiscences of A Stock Operator” that no man can consistently and continuously beat the stock market. No matter how experienced a trader is the possibility of his making losing plays is always present because speculation cannot be made 100% safe. Inside tips will break a man more quickly than famine or what might be called normal accidents. There is no asphalt boulevard to success in Wall Street or anywhere else. This is so true. So be humble in the market all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rose slightly. June 29thwas the future settlement day for HK market. Market is usually down on these days. Energy sector fell the most in both A-share and HK market as oil prices went down. There is a lot of argument as to whether inflation is transitory or persistent. But the breakeven treasury yields have turned their corners, signaling that rates market does not expect inflation to last for a long time.  

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