上半年A股和港股表现落后。2021年上半年，在全球16个主要国家和地区的股票市场中，A股的上证指数和深成指涨幅分别排在倒数第一和第二名，恒生指数排名倒数第四。我们认为这主要是因为我国去年10月份流动性现拐点，导致A股估值无法提升。而港股表现落后主要是因为疫情对经济复苏股的业绩构成压力。但无论A股还是港股都不乏结构性行情，A股创业板中的创成长指数涨幅为27%，稳居全球之首。在A股28个行业中，19个上涨，9个下跌。涨幅超过10%的行业有7个，分别是电气设备、钢铁、化工、采掘、综合、有色金属和电子，他们的上涨幅度在11.8-23.8%之间。这7个行业大部分为周期性行业。下跌超过10%的行业有三个，分别为家用电器、非银金融和国防军工。A股4373只股票中，2007只股票上半年取得正收益，占比46%，其中119只股票收益超过100%。这119只股票中除周期股外，大部分估值都非常高，属流动性推动的上涨。港股恒生12个综合行业中，除科技和必需消费下跌外，其余10个上涨，其中能源和医疗保健行业涨幅超过20%，综合、工业、原材料和非必需消费行业涨幅在10.8-16.7%,而公用事业、地产建筑、电讯和金融行业涨幅在2.2-8.6%。无论上证指数还是恒生指数，从估值来看都处在全球较低水平。如遭遇全球股市调整，A股和港股无疑也会跌幅相对较小。而且从历史来看，二者估值也都处在较低水平。即使下半年我国经济和企业盈利下行，股市相对调整幅度应该不会特别大。

周二A股上涨，港股下跌，美股涨跌互现。6月份官方制造业采购经理人指数确认经济在缓慢下行。内需走弱，而外需能否持续弥补内需下行的压力是未来需要关注的。港股博彩股上涨。据媒体报道，港澳有意在7月中旬恢复有限度通关，来回两地无须检疫。报道还指，香港方面希望与澳门通关后，与内地商讨通关工作可以更有利，有望三地通关。查理·芒格在接受CNBC采访时称赞中国在应对新冠疫情上采取的严格隔离措施以及对蚂蚁金服IPO叫停的举措。美股涨跌不一，市场关注周五发布的非农就业数据。如超预期，则有可能促使美联储加快收紧货币政策的步伐。美元指数上涨到92.35，触及一个月以来的高点。美联储收紧流动性会否造成2013年对新兴市场的重大冲击，我们之前在这次也许不一样中对此做过分析。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose less than most of the major indexes worldwide in 1H2021. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rose 3.4%, 4.8% and 5.9% respectively in 1H2021, ranked as the 16th,15th and 13th among 16 major indexes globally in terms of rise range. The reason behind is that for A-share China took back liquidity from October 2020. While for HK stocks the reason is due to the re-surging of COVID-19,which caused recovery stocks to fall. Yet there were a lot of opportunities in 1H2021. For example, Chinext Momentum Growth Index rose 27% and was the best-performing index globally. In A-share 19 out of 28 sectors rose with cyclical sectors rising the most. And in HK market 10 out of 12 sectors rose with energy and medicine sector rising the most. Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index are valued at the low levels globally. Hence, even if global stock markets might correct in 2H2021 A-share and HK stocks would not fall too much broadly speaking. Both is also valued low in history, implying that they might have partly priced in economic and earnings slowdown in 2H2021.

A-share rose and HK stocks fell while the US stocks were mixed on Wednesday. China official Purchasing Manager’s Index in June showed that economy is slowing down gradually. Going forward it is worth observing whether the export demand can make up the domestic demand slowdown. HK gaming stocks rallied due to the news that Macau and HK will reopen to each other. Charlie Munger thought of highly what China did in dealing with COVID-19 and the decision to call off Ant Group IPO when he and Warren Buffett were interviewed by CNBC. The US dollar Index rose to one-month high. Market is watching the non-farm payroll in June. If this data is higher than expected, the Federal Reserve might hasten its steps to exit the QE policy. We have analyzed whether this time Fed’s tapering would cause market panic in“This time might be different” published in our official wechat “Maple Insight”on May 16th 2021.

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