投资的信仰。时逢中国共产党成立百年,百年风华,成就伟业。光辉的事业需要坚定的信仰,才能不忘初心,放得始终。做好投资也需要信仰。市场波动随时都有可能发生,如何应对?首先,要树立正确的信仰。中国共产党成立之时,中国有很多党派,都致力于救中国。但最后只有中国共产党从只有20几人发展到现在的9500万人,因为中国共产党信奉的“马克思主义行”。投资也要树立正确的信仰。投资中正确的信仰就是要坚持价值投资理念,坚持公司的股价是由盈利驱动的,而不是估值驱动的。其次,要坚守信仰。中国共产党历经艰难险阻,创造出人类文明史上的瞩目成就,就是坚守马克思主义信念,坚持为人民服务的精神。坚守信仰十分不易,要历经残酷的考验。共产党员为坚守信仰,抛头颅,洒热血。投资坚守信仰也十分不易,在市场波动中投资信仰会时时面临考验。2020年春节后新冠疫情导致的A股大跌,我们于2020年2月10日在官方微信公众号枫瑞视点上发表了价值投资是抵御市场波动的利器,对此进行了分析。如“一根阳线改变情绪,两根阳线改变观点,三根阳线改变信仰”,投资就陷入追涨杀跌的怪圈中,想赚钱也不太可能。要坚持正确的投资理念并坚守,才能在市场波动中获得较好的回报。
动量交易无处不在。A股的创成长指数上半年涨幅居于全球之首,该指数是动量交易指数。其前十大市值成分股静态市盈率均在80倍以上,包括宁德时代、爱尔眼科、亿纬锂能、卓胜微等。Meme 股票是新冠危机之后发明出来的一个新词语,特指被散户在网络媒体疯狂评论的美国股票。Meme股票包括游戏驿站、AMC、黑莓以及BBBY等基本面较差但股价却很高的股票。游戏驿站今年2月份曾经暴涨暴跌,并引发美国证监会对交易平台和交易保证金的调查。但该股票近期又大幅上涨。美林证券分析师发现游戏驿站股票的上涨与社交平台中的谈论次数紧密相关。电影《大空头》的原型迈克·巴里认为Meme股票与2000年的互联网股票、2008年次贷危机前的加杠杆购房都是一样的行为。泡沫终将破灭,动量交易从来都不会持久。
What do you believe in in investment? China Communist Party celebrated its 100th birthday. Over the last 100 years it created a great cause, that is, to lead China to become a prosperous country from a poor and weak one. The main reason is that it has insisted on the right belief, which is Marxism. In investment the first thing is to find the right belief, which in our view is value investment. In value investment stock prices are driven by earnings growth rather than valuation improvement. Second, it is to insist on the right belief. China Communist Party experienced numerous setbacks and it is only because that it has been insisted on Marxism that it can accomplish great achievements. It goes the same in investment.Market can rise or fall unexpectedly. With value investment one can deal with these ups and downs in a right way. We published “Value investment is the strong weapon to deal with market ups and downs” in our official wechat “Maple Insights” on Feb. 10th, 2020. All in all, the right investment belief can help investor to earn good return, which is to stick to value investment rather than to speculate.
Momentum trading is all over the place. Chinext Momentum GrowthIndex achieved the best return worldwide in 1H2021. The top ten weighting stocks in this index are valued at trailing-twelve-months price-to-earnings ratio of 80x or above. Meme stocks, which refer to those stocks that individual investors talk about frequently in social platform, rose skyrocket high as well in 1H2021. Analysts from Merrill Lynch found that these meme stocks performed in line with how frequently they were talked about in the social platform. Michael Burry, whose experience can be found in Big Short, said that Meme stocks were the same as internet companies in internet bubbles and leveraged house-buyers in 2008 global financial crises. It would go bust for sure but when that can happen is uncertain. A-share fell while HK stock market closed for Handover Day on July 1st.The US stocks rose on the first trading day of 2H2021.
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