对大跌的反思。上周五A股放量大跌，与央行回收流动性有一定关系。A股申万28个行业中只有两个行业上涨，分别是有色金属和商业贸易，其余26个行业下跌。其中跌幅居前的是休闲服务、医药生物和食品饮料，也即抱团股集中的行业。一方面，这些股票从3月份以来反弹的幅度较高，其中部分个股涨幅翻倍；另一方面，这些抱团股的估值也重新回到了历史最高水平。对于炒股票而言，只要公司不断出利好，股价就可以上涨，无需看估值。但是，如果基本面变差了，这些股票的风险也很大。特别是一些赛道股，如果赛道的逻辑发生变化，对股价而言就是慢慢熊途。所以，估值的重要性就是它提供了安全边际。而买入有安全边际的股票是保护本金安全的一个重要方面。A股市场因为个人投资者占比较高，市场趋势交易者众多，博弈色彩浓重，先跑路就是赚到的意识是市场很多交易者的心理写照。一旦群体情绪叠加负面因素，市场随即发生大跌。所以，A股市场如能保持长期投资的理念，还是可以赚到钱的。因为，市场总会出现个股低估的机会。总之，投资就要做正确的事情。很多人不清楚投资中什么是正确的事情。投资中第一正确的事情是不要追逐泡沫。如何判断泡沫？问问周围的人都拿了什么股票。如果都拿着同样的股票，说明这只或者这类股票已经有泡沫了。人多的地方通常就是风险大的地方。

如何看待美国6月非农就业数据超预期？6月非农就业数据看起来很完美。新增就业85万人，超市场预期。但是私营部门就业仍低于预期，同时劳动参与率也与5月持平。尽管现在有20多个州已经或将要终止州政府300美金的失业补贴，但70%的劳动力不会受到这个因素的影响。由于劳动力供应不足，时薪工资已经较一年前上涨了4.5%。市场预计美联储在8月份的杰克逊年会上宣布缩减债券购买计划，但是制约劳动力短缺的因素短时间并不会消失。有分析师认为可能需要等到11月份才有可能见到劳动力市场的真实情况。不过美联储真的能等那么久吗？

Reflection on A-share tumble last Friday. One reason possible is that the People’s Bank of China withdrew liquidity. Only 2 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose, which were non-ferrous metal and textile sector. Leisure service, bio-medicine and food and beverage fell the most. These sectors are full of group-holding stocks. Some stock prices in these sectors doubled over the last two months and valuation was over-stretched.For those investors who chase stocks they only care whether companies can grow their earnings at a fast rate and do not care about their valuation. This is especially true in A-share as many investors are trend-followers. The risk is that if trends are going down, then stock prices can fall sharply. So buying stocks with safety margin is very important in investment. By doing so one can protect his or her principle. In investment the most important thing is to do right things and the foremost right thing is not to chase bubbles.

How to look at the non-farm payroll data in June? The US non-farm payroll in June was 850,000, higher than expected. However, private payroll numbers were 662,000, lower than 1 million expected. Moreover, the labor-force participation rate was flat in June despite better hiring than in May. There are 20+ states that are cutting or going to cut the extra US$300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration. But 70% of the working population would not be affected by this.  As such, wage inflation has become very severe.In June average hourly earnings went up by 4.5% from a year ago. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% due to labor shortage. The situation of supply constraints in labor market would continue for some time as unemployment benefits, child-care and pandemic, which are factors that prevent people from seeking jobs, would continue into September. Some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to take actions to cut off bond purchasing in Jackson Hole annual meeting.  But others expect the Fed to take actions only when labor market becomes more clear. The earliest that Fed would take any actions would be in November.

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