价值股将再度崛起。周二最坚硬的抱团板块CXO大跌。国家药监局药审中心日前发布《以临床价值为导向的抗肿瘤药物临床研发指导原则》征求意见稿，市场认为该指导原则将会打击医药研发中的伪创新，增加创新药上市的难度，间接利空为创新药做研发和临床试验的CXO板块。但不可否认的是CXO板块经过持续两年多的上涨，很多公司都涨了10倍以上，当前板块估值处在极高的水平。因此，基本面的一点利空就对股价构成重大利空。抱团股中的新能源汽车和半导体行业仍旧如火如荼，而白酒和医药板块则接连遭遇重挫。我们认为抱团股很可能要就此低迷一段时间：一方面，如果美国收紧流动性，高估值板块将会面临较大压力；另一方面，抱团股二季度业绩有待验证，如果业绩不及预期，则股价将会进一步调整。而与之相对应的是，年初以来，价值股只是在3月份之前有所表现，之后再度低迷。但随着二季度业绩来临，我们认为价值股将会有较好表现。很多价值股在2020年遭遇疫情冲击，业绩不及预期。今年尽管疫情仍时有发生，但是，总体上要好过2020年同期水平。因此价值股的业绩有很大概率超预期，同时价值股的估值仍处在历史最低水平。因此，一旦业绩超预期，股价就将会有较好表现。投资人对成长股耳熟能详，而对价值股却有些陌生。其实，大金融、地产、上游周期等板块都是价值股的典型代表。这些板块中的大部分从新冠危机以来鲜有表现，个别板块近期屡创新低，显示市场对他们的预期极度悲观。但未来认为随着业绩提升，这些板块的估值也将会有提升，价值股终将会有较好表现。

A股和港股均探底回升，美股涨跌不一。美股能源和银行股下跌，而科技股上涨。10年期国债收益率下跌至1.36%，为2021年2月以来的最低点。美国6月供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数低于预期，市场认为美国经济可能正在接近峰值。A股和港股尾盘在金融股的推动下回升。中办国办印发《关于依法从严打击证券违法活动的意见》，打击违法犯罪活动，严格执行强制退市制度对股市是重大利好，将会有助于价值股的崛起。

The come back of value stocks is on the way. CXO sector fell sharply on Tuesday as Centre for Drug Evaluation of National Medical Products Administration issued a draft for comments of “Guideline Principles of Clinical Research and Development of Anti-oncology Medicines”.This draft could hit fake innovation in medicine R&D and make it hard for innovation drugs to be brought up to the market. Both are negative for CXO sectors. Yet in CXO sectors many stocks are ten baggers and their valuation is at an extreme level. Hence, a piece of negative news hit the sector hard. In group-holding stocks new energy and semi-conductor stocks are still rising well while spirits and medicine stocks have suffered big retreat recently. In the near future these group-holding stocks might perform poorly as the Federal Reserve could take back liquidity soon. Also with the second quarter earnings to be released some of those group-holding stocks’ earnings might disappoint the market. On the contrary, value stocks could come back again. On the one hand they have not performed well since March and valuation is still very low;on the other hand, their earnings in the 2nd quarter could surprise the market to the upside. Value stocks include those in financial, property and upstream cyclical sectors. Some stocks in these sectors have seen their prices fall to the lowest levels in years. Investors are pessimistic about their prospects. Yet this would be the best time to invest in these stocks.

A-share and HK stocks bottomed up while the US stocks were mixed on Tuesday. The June ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index in the US came in lower than expected. Market is concerned that the US economy might be peaking out. Energy and bank stocks fell while tech stocks rose in the US. The General Office of the Central Government Council and the State Council issued “The opinion about cracking down the illegal activities in capital market” on Tuesday. Delisting rules would be executed strictly. This is a big positive for A-share and would help value stocks to come back. 

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