企业盈利的增长来自哪里？企业盈利的增长来源于两个方面：收入增长和利润率提升。收入增长来自于产品价格提升和销量增加。去年以来，周期性行业的股价上涨就是由产品价格上涨推动的。而销量通常是行业增长加上企业扩大市场份额的结果。利润率提升来源于毛利率提升和费用率下降。而毛利率提升又来源于产品价格上涨和成本下降；而费用率下降则主要是由于企业经营管理改善造成的。行业竞争到最后就是看谁成本低，成本低的活下来，成本高的被淘汰出局。每个行业都有周期，从萌芽期到成长期、成熟期，最后到达衰退期。所有的夕阳行业都曾经成长过，所有的朝阳行业未来都会走向衰退。20年前，百货行业是高增长行业，百盛百货享有50-60倍的市盈率，投资人对它的未来发展前景保持很高的信心。如今，百货公司估值在几倍的市盈率。百货行业在过去10年遭遇到电商的重大冲击。同样受到冲击的还有电器零售行业，曾经火爆一时的国美和苏宁也在电商的冲击下节节败退。苏宁近期也因为管理不善导致大股东出局。如何在股票市场抓住处于盈利增速最快时期的股票？对于成长股，从行业角度找到增速较快的行业。当前，中国很多行业都进入了成熟或者衰退期，只有为数不多的细分行业还处在成长阶段，比如医药研发外包制造行业，就是CRO和CDMO行业。新能源汽车行业也处在增速较高的阶段。这些行业的股票估值也都很高，市场给予他们的估值就是市场景气阶段的估值。当然，景气过后，估值也一定会回落的，而回落的幅度也取决于他们的盈利增速下降的程度。股票市场也有很多细分行业昙花一现，高增长一两年之后行业天花板就达到了。这些行业很难产生市值很大的公司，在这些行业也只能赚一时的钱。赚很多钱的行业通常都是在食品饮料和医药等行业，但这些行业估值也都处在较高水平，未来可能需要很长时间消化估值。

A股和美股上涨，港股下跌。美10年期国债收益率下降到1.296%，美国大型科技股上涨，能源和银行股下跌。A股周三反弹，CXO板块缩量上涨。港股科技股调整，滴滴出行对科技板块的负面影响仍存。国务院提出为支持经济发展将结构性降准。

Where does earnings growth come from? A company grows its earnings from both top-line and bottom-line.Top-line growth comes from product price increase, sales volume expansion and gross margin improvement. For example: the upstream sectors grew their earnings fast in 1H2021 due to product prices increase. Sales volume expansion is usually boostedby sector growth and market share increase. Gross margin improvement is usually associated with technology improvement or cost efficiency. Bottom-line growth is driven by top-line growth and margin improvement. Apart from gross margin improvement, a company can cut off its sales expense, R&D and general administration cost to improve margin, that is to improve its management to a higher standard. Every sector has initial stage, growth stage, develop stage and decline stage. In 2005-06 when department store sector was in growth stage the listed companies such as Parkson Retail Group enjoyed price-to-earnings ratio as high as 50-60x. Now it’s valued at price-to-book ratio of 0.16x and has been losing money for years. With China’s economy slowing down most of the sectors have come into decline stage. Some small sectors could grow fast in a short period of time and soon find the growth ceiling. In these sectors it is hard to grow a big market-cap company. Market is now very optimistic about new energy sector, contract research organization (CRO） and contract developmentand manufacturing organization（CDMO）. Companies in these sectors are valued at high levels. Yet these sectors have ups and downs as well. When the sector growth comes down the listed companies valuation would come down as well.

A-share and the US stocks rose while HK stocks fell. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.296% and mega-tech companies rose. CXO sector in both A-share and HK market rebounded with contracted volume. In HK market tech sector was still under pressure with Didi affair. The State Council said that to support economy it would cut down reserve ratio, which is positive for stock market. 

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