通缩了吗？A股和港股周四大跌，市场对经济复苏有很大的疑虑。政府提出适时降准可能表明经济增速不及预期。而市场担心银行将会再次向实体经济让利，银行股大跌。近期中美两国的国债收益率均下行，美国10年期国债收益率周四早盘跌破1.25%，一些股票基金经理可能会认为经济有重大利空，相应地要减持股票配置。而中国10年期国债收益率也在周四跌破了3%达到2.9975%，这是2020年8月24日以来10年期国债收益率首次跌破3%的水平。国债收益率下行，通常反应市场的避险情绪，侧面反应经济走弱。A股市场从上周开始调整，港股市场过去8个交易日中6个下跌。资金撤离A股和港股市场是因为美元指数上行，导致资金逃离新兴市场。对港股而言，年初的上涨主要是由经济复苏预期推动的。经济复苏股3月份之后在港股表现不及预期，4月份是因为受到疫情的冲击，但5月份以来应该是受到经济下行的担忧。而A股只有个别板块包括新能源和半导体表现，大部分板块都处在下跌的走势中。因此，无论A股还是港股其实都在反应经济下行。我们之前判断从官方制造业采购经理人指数看，该数据在3月份达到高点之后回落显示中国经济触顶之后进入了库存周期下行期。中国经济距离衰退应还有距离。因此，当前仍应该配置股票。而美国经济仍处在库存周期冲顶的阶段，在美联储即将开启缩减购买计划的时机，美国国债收益率出人意料的下行猜测更多是技术层面而非基本面因素造成的。因此，通胀仍是当前的主要问题而不是通缩。也许四季度我们讨论通缩会比较合适。

Is deflation coming? The tumble of both A-share and HK stocks reflects that investors are concerned that China’s economy might be on the downward trend. This seems to be verified by the news that government would lower reserve ratio for banks.Bank stocks dropped sharply as market worried that banks were asked to give out some profit to industries if economy goes down. Recently both China and the US treasury yield fell. In China 10-year treasury yield fell below 3% to 2.9975% on Thursday, the first time since August 24th 2020. The decrease of treasury yield usually means that market is risk-averse and treasury is taken as safe heaven.  The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.25% in the early trading hours on Thursday. Portfolio managers would take this as a signal that economy would come down sharply and cut off equity allocation. A-share began to correct last week while HK stocks fell for six sessions over the last 8 trading days. In A-share only a couple of sectors rose including new energy and semi-conductor. Other sectors fell sharply. In HK market sectors associated with economy recovery fell from mid-March due to the resurging pandemic. Yet from May they continued to fall due to the concern that economy might be weakening. Our judgment is that China’s economy has peaked out in March as shown by the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index. Yet it is still far from recession.Hence equity should still be the top-pick in asset allocation. Inflation is still dominant at this moment. We might need to consider deflation in the 4thquarter this year when economy comes down further.

Global stocks fell with VIX index rising. The initial jobless claim last week in the US was worse than expected. This along with June ISM PurchasingManger’s Index showed that the US economy might be slowing down. Also as Japan Olympics would not allow spectators to witness the matches investors worry that the pandemic might come back again. Financials and industrial stocks in the US fell the most. VIX index rose above 20. 

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