不宜悲观。在6月份社融数据超预期以及下半年大宗商品价格可能见顶回落的情况下全面降准让市场猜测经济比预期的差。本周四将公布6月份和2季度的经济数据，届时将会对市场的预期做出回应。我们的判断是经济确实进入了下行期，但是下行的幅度比较缓慢，不应过度悲观。从景气指标官方制造业采购经理人指数看，我们可以看到小企业该指数几乎从2012年以来就基本处在收缩的状态，处在扩张区间的时间较少。而6月份的小企业官方制造业采购经理人指数还有所改善，从5月份的48.8%上行到49.1%。但是上半年大宗商品价格的上涨确实对中小企业而言压力巨大，另外疫情也影响了很多从事餐饮服务的中小企业。从经济周期看，库存周期下行期一般对应着降准降息。可以说这次为应对经济潜在下行，政府确实是做到了未雨绸缪。那当前估值割裂的市场接下来会如何演绎呢？我们认为成长和价值股均有机会，但是估值低的弹性会更大。并且如果指数能上行甚至突破前期高点，一定是低估值价值股带领的，而不是高估值的成长股。我们仍看好周期股、低估价值股。经济复苏股当前预期过低，个别板块接近2020年3月的低点，有一点催化剂板块就会有较好的涨幅。

中美金融周期短暂趋同。美国目前仍处在大放水时期，而中国的货币政策也开始趋向宽松。中美金融周期暂时趋同，对人民币的升值压力减轻。上周五收盘后我国央行宣布全面降低存款准备金0.5个百分点，人民币汇率应声走软。从5月底央行开始出手抑制人民币升值以来，人民币贬值幅度达到1.86%。但美国有可能在今年下半年开始收缩流动性，而中国则因为经济下行货币政策不太可能过紧，中美两国的金融周期将会再度背离。受到中美金融周期背离的影响，人民币也许将会在下半年见到更大幅度的贬值，但是幅度应有限。人民币过度贬值将会导致外资持续流出，对我国股市和债市都不利。我们之前提到过今年不是2018年，主要原因是中国的经济形势本身强于2018年，另外货币和财政政策也较2018年更加友好。这意味着中国经济整体承受冲击的能力强于2018年，大可不必担忧股灾再度发生。

No need to be pessimistic. As June aggregate social financing came in above expectation and that commodity prices are expected to peak out in 2H2021, the news that People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the reserve ratio for all banks was out of expectation. Market then became concerned that economy might be worse than expected. The June and 2nd quarter economic data will be released on Thursday. We do not expect too much downside risk. Although China’s economy has been on a downward trend it would go down gradually rather than sliding. To cut reserve ratio is actually to help the small- to mid-sized enterprises (SMEs). The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index for small businesses in June showed that SMEs were on the contraction area. This might be due to the pandemic, which made SMEs in catering sector faced with difficulties to find customers. Moreover, high-flying commodities prices also made them difficult to maintain a profit. Banks can lower the interest cost of SMEs after reserve ratio becomes lower. For stock market both value stocks and growth stocks would perform in an easing monetary environment. Yet if the stock market can go higher, the value stocks would perform better than growth stocks as the latter’s valuation is already over-stretched.

The convergence of monetary policy of China and the US. That PBOC has lowered reserve ratio for all banks means that China’s easing monetary policy. This is in line with the US, which is still in easing monetary policy. RMB has depreciated 1.86% against the US dollar since the end of May. Market expects the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity in 2H2021. This would cause the divergence of monetary policy of China and the US again. As such RMB might depreciate further in 2H2021 but we deem that it would not depreciate too much as what happened in 2018. On the one hand the financial deleveraging has made big progress; on the other hand China’s economy in 2H2021 would be better than in 2018. So again this year would not be a repeat of 2018.

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