中证500和创业板指均放量突破。周一中证500上涨1.47%，超越了2020年7月14日的前期高点。中证500指数中除了天赐材料市值接近800亿人民币（下同），酒鬼酒和科沃斯市值略超500亿，其余497只权重股的市值均在400亿以下，市值最低的重庆燃气和中铝国际市值仅有11-12亿。中证500当前的静态市盈率为22倍，处在2007年1月以来6.34%的分位点，即从2007年1月以来的14年多的时间里，仅有6.34%的时间中证500的估值是低于当前水平的。虽然指数的估值水平较低，但是内部估值差异较大。年初以来涨幅较好的新能源、半导体和人工智能相关板块的估值水平较高，均在100倍市盈率以上，比如天赐材料、特锐德、士兰微、科沃斯等。科创板上市的股票估值也较高，比如微芯生物等。有32只股票仍然亏损，包括受疫情冲击较大的酒店、航空和铁路等企业。其余有盈利的股票中，361只的市盈率在0-50倍之间，其余109只股票市盈率在50倍以上。中证500中低估值股票占比较高。我们认为未来指数将会持续上行，一方面中小市值公司在经济下行的过程中受到的冲击较大公司而言要小，另一方面，去年以来对大市值核心资产的炒作已经达到一个极致状态，抱团股的筹码松散之后必然要寻找新的方向。在中证500指数中的百亿市值公司中还是能找到一些短期业绩确定增长的股票，这些也成为资金追捧的方向。周一创业板指也放量突破了2015年5月以来的高点，也是受到了新能源等热门行业的带动。创业板指静态市盈率为63.6倍，处于2010年6月份指数成立以来80%的分位。其100个权重股中55只的静态市盈率超过50倍。资金在追捧新能源等热门股的热情如达到极限，高估值的股票可能面临较大压力。相比而言，我们更看好中证500中的低估值个股。创业板指未来可能会面临估值回调的压力。

全面降准对A股和港股市场的带动有限。上证指数和恒生指数上涨略超0.6%，市场仍担忧经济下行。美股标普500和纳斯达克再度创出新高。周二摩根大通、高盛和百事将会发布二季度业绩。因去年疫情造成的低基数，二季度业绩增速将创出历史新高。

Both CSI 500 and Chinext Index rose to new high. CSI 500 small-cap index (CSI 500) rose 1.47% on Monday above the previous high set on July 14th 2020. Among the weighting stocks in this index 497 stocks have a market cap below RMB 40 billion. Guangzhou Tinci Material has a market cap which is close to RMB 80 billion, the largest market cap in CSI 500. Jiugui Liquor and Ecovacs Robotics have a market cap of a little more than RMB 50 billion. The trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of CSI 500 is 22.6x, which put it at 6.34% percentile since Jan.2007. The valuation gap is obvious within the index, though. Stocks in hot sectors including new energy, semi-conductor and artificial intelligence have TTW PE above 100x. 361 stocks’ TTW PE is between 0-50x. 109 stocks have a TTW PE above 50x. We believe that going forward the index will be driven by those low-valued stocks. The first is that as economy slows down small- to mid-sized companies will perform better than big ones. The second is that group-holding stocks have faced with challenges to attract new money. Money into the stock market would have to seek alternative investment opportunities. CSI 500 is a good place to be as there are many companies with market cap above RMB 5 billion that can deliver good earnings growth this year. Chinext Index also reached new high from June 2015. But different from CSI 500 Chinext Index is valued at TTW PE 63.6x, which put it at 80% percentile since June 2010 when the Index was set up. Among the 100 weighting stocks in the index, 55 have a TTW PE above 50x.This index might face some headwinds going forward given its high-valuation.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rose a little above 0.6%. Market is still concerned about the likely slowdown of economy. The US stocks rose with SP 500 and Nasdaq reaching new high. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs along with Pepsi will report 2Q2021 earnings on Tuesday. Market is focused on their outlook for the remaining of this year rather than the blockbuster 2Q earnings due to the low base in 2020. 

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