下半年经济增速要看政策的力度。下半年美联储能不能回收流动性在很大程度上左右全球资产动向。届时，如果中国经济增速下行，我们认为中国的货币和财政政策将会发挥更大的支持作用。2020年新冠疫情发生以来，中国经济增速领先全球，但我们的货币和财政政策都没有像西方发达国家那样用尽全力。2020年欧美国家财政赤字都达到了双位数，而中国的广义财政赤字率只有8.2%。今年以来，货币和财政政策持续收紧。货币政策上，社融增量同比增速持续走低；财政政策上，专项债发行也不及预期。但未来随着经济下行压力加大以及美联储收回流动性，市场认为专项债的发行将会提速。而货币政策方面，广义货币M2的同比增速已经触底回升，我们认为3、4季度将会保持稳健增长的水平，同时不排除如经济超预期下行和美联储超预期回收流动性的前提下，货币和财政政策超预期发力。我国6月进出口数据再超预期，反应国外的经济增长仍然强劲；进口增速环比下行主要是去年的基数抬升造成的。

美国6月份消费者价格指数上涨再超预期。美国6月份消费者价格指数同比上涨5.3%，超出市场预期的4.9%，创下2008年8月份以来的最快涨幅。因去年6月份的消费者价格指数已经不是一个低基数，因此，当前价格的上涨说明通胀处在较高水平。环比数据可以不受去年低基数的影响。除去食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数4-6月份平均每月上涨0.8%，意味着年化10.1%的增速，这无论如何都是一个很高的数据。通胀是暂时的还是持久的仍是当下争论的焦点。对于那些认为通胀是暂时的，6月份的数据也提供充分的例证。占消费者价格指数1/3的二手汽车和卡车的价格6月份环比5月份上涨了10.5%，而这主要是由于疫情打断供应链导致芯片等生产汽车的关键零部件短缺所造成。如果剔除掉二手车的价格上涨，则6月份的消费者价格指数环比5月份上涨0.5%，而核心消费者价格指数将会上涨0.4%。美联储主席鲍威尔将于周三和周四在国会作证，市场预计他仍会坚持通胀是暂时的说法，至于暂时会持续多久仍不可知。因美国6月通胀数据超预期，美股市场从高位回落。

China’s economic growth in 2H2021 would largely depend on fiscal and monetary policy. When and how the Federal Reserve takes back liquidity wouldaffect global financial assets. China’s fiscal and monetary policy would becomemore proactive if China’s economy slows down more than expected and the Fed takes back liquidity earlier than expected. In 2020 China’s broad fiscal ratio of deficit was 8.2% compared with double-digit of ratio of deficit in the western developed nations. The People’s bank of China (PBOC) began to take back liquidity in 2H2020. Since the beginning of 2021 fiscal policy has been tight. The issuance of special bond has lagged behind schedule. In 2H2021 the issuance of special bond will hurry up to prevent the economy from sliding too fast. Moreover, money supply will grow steadily in 2H2021, as mentioned by the PBOC  recently. Hence, it is no need to worry too much about the Fed’s tapering in2H2021. The June export and import data in China was above expectation.

June CPI grew higher than expected in the US. Total CPI rose 5.4%in June after rising 5% in May, which was the fastest increase from August 2008. It is noticeable because June 2020 was not a low base as May 2020. Month-on-month comparison is a better reading as it excludes base effect. From April to June CPI increased at an average 0.8% per month, which translates into 10.1% annually. Hence,whether inflation is transitory or persisting is still a focus in the market. Forthose arguing that inflation is transitory the used car and truck prices provides support. In June the used car and truck prices increased 10.5% from May mainly due to the supply chain disruption. The used car and truck prices  ccount for one third of CPI. Excluding used vehicle prices, CPI would haverisen 0.5% and 0.4% in June from May. The Fed chairman Powell will testify before the congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Market expects that he maintains that inflation is transitory. Though it is unknown how long transitory inflation would last.  The US stocks retreated from record high. The 10-year treasury yield went up. 

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