白马股不香了吗？上证50指数中的50只权重股都是所谓白马股。近期，这些白马股迭创新低引发市场的关注。在这50个权重股中，权重最大的是贵州茅台，占比15.8%，前10大权重股合计权重占指数的57%。今年以来前10大权重股表现较好的仅有隆基股份和药明康德，年初以来分别上涨33%和44%。而其他八只股票要么下跌要么持平。其中跌幅较大的有恒瑞医药、中国平安、中信证券和万科企业，年初以来分别下跌35%、32%、20%和19%。贵州茅台年初至今股价是持平的。无论中国平安还是万科企业，其估值都处在历史较低或者最低的水平。为什么这些公司的股价表现如此疲弱呢？主要原因是基本面存在较大风险。但是基本面的弱势其实已经反应到股价里了。如果未来基本面有好转，股价将会有较好表现。当然，上证50的内部分化其实是今年A股市场分化的一个体现。今年以来涨幅最高的行业是化工，上涨28.8%；而跌幅最大的行业是非银金融，下跌19.8%。化工股的上涨主要是新能源汽车相关个股推动的，而非银金融中无论保险还是券商今年的表现都不佳。保险板块因为保费增速不及预期，行业处在低迷期。但券商板块业绩增速其实并不差，但一直被市场所抛弃。如何看待这种现象呢？这与投资者结构有很大关系。A股市场中的个人投资者众多，同时基民也很多。无论个人投资者还是基民都是趋势投资者。市场上涨或者基金净值上涨才会入市。因此，上涨的板块似乎永远有上涨的动力；而下跌的板块永远有杀跌的动力。但是，只要是趋势就会有逆转的那一天。一旦趋势逆转，无论上涨还是下跌也都会非常剧烈。所以，做好心理准备，市场有可能会发生巨震。

美联储将会维持当前货币政策。美联储主席鲍威尔认为当前通胀还是短暂的，未来将会趋于平稳。但如果通胀高于预期，美联储将会调整货币政策。就业达到目标仍然需要比较长的时间，因此削减债券购买可能也要等一段时间。鉴于美联储的鸽派立场，道指和标普500上涨，而纳指下跌，10年期国债收益率下降。A股和港股因美国6月通胀超预期担忧美联储收紧流动性而下跌，新能源相关板块跌幅居前。

Blue chips did not perform. SSE 50 Index fell to new lows year-to-date (the same below). This index is composed of 50 blue-chip stocks. Kweichow Moutai has the largest weighting at 15.8%. The top-ten stocks contribute 57% of  the index weighting. Among the top-ten stocks only 2 stocks, i.e., Longi Green Energy Technology and Wuxi Apptec performed well. Wuxi Apptec rose 44% and Longi Green Energy rose 33%. The remaining 8 either fell sharply or was flat. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical, China Ping’an, CITIC Securities and Vanke Property fell the most at 35%, 32%, 20% and 19% respectively. Some of these stocks are faced with challenges to grow their earnings such as insurance stocks. Others are faced with valuation contraction despite good earnings growth such as brokerages. While the divergence in SSE 50 Index is obvious, it actually reflects the broad market. In A-share the best-performing sector rose 28.8% while the worst-performing sector fell 19.6%.The reasons behind is that most of the individual investors and those buy mutual funds are trend-followers. They will chase those stocks and funds that perform well. This has caused the phenomenon that the better performance of the funds or stocks the more money come in and the worse performance the more money come out. Yet with the valuation of those stocks that performs well reaching the peak levels and that of those stocks that perform poorly reaching the historical low levels the divergence would narrow. Once this happens the rise or fall of stocks would be very sharp. Better be prepared for this.  

The Federal Reserve remained dovish. Fed chairman Powell said that the inflation would moderate after being at high levels for some time and the Fed would not taper until employment made progress. DOW and SP 500 rose while Nasdaq fell slightly. The 10-year treasury yield fell at the Fed’s dovish tone.Both A-share and HK stocks fell as June inflation in the US was higher than expected and market concerned that the Fed would take back liquidity earlier than expected.  New energy sector fell the most. 

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