中国2季度经济增速环比上行。中国2季度GDP同比增速为7.9%，略低于市场预期。环比增速为1.3%，高于1季度的0.6%，但慢于去年4季度的2.6%。工业增加值同比增速为8.3%，预期为7.8%；社会消费品零售总额同比增速为12.1%，高于预期的11%。2季度来看，无论工业、消费还是出口都超出市场预期，显示经济仍处在复苏的态势中。值得注意的是，2季度中国仍有疫情发生，但消费已经有明显改善，一方面显示我国应对疫情的能力，另一方面则是疫情如控制得好，其对经济的负面影响可控。

疫情下的经济复苏。疫情下世界经济复苏呈现两级分化。西方发达国家经济复苏进程超预期，因为疫苗接种率较高；而大多数发展中国家都因为没有或缺少疫苗，经济复苏一波三折。近期受到Delta变异毒株的影响，多国新冠疫情蔓延态势加速。世界银行北京时间周四表示，东亚和太平洋地区(除中国)今年GDP增速可能会低于此前预期，因该地区的许多国家面临疫情再次大爆发和疫苗接种率不足的问题。世界银行行长马尔帕斯(David Malpass)周四称，东亚和太平洋地区(除中国)今年预计将增长4%，低于3月份预测的4.4%，其中缅甸等饱受疫情冲击的国家经济下滑幅度将超过预期。不过，马尔帕斯表示，如果将中国涵盖在内，预计该地区今年经济增速将达到7.7%，高于3月7.4%的预测值。世卫组织日前也指出受Delta变异病毒影响，全球正处在第三波疫情大爆发前夕。我们认为美国等发达国家所受影响将会较小。当前，美国餐饮和出行需求已经恢复到疫情前的水平，经济复苏稳步进行中。

A股和港股上涨，美股涨跌不一。受到隔夜美联储鸽派立场的提振，A股和港股上涨。美股涨跌不一，其中纳指和标普下跌，而道指上涨。美国发布二季度业绩的公司基本均超预期，但股价涨幅有限，显示利好已经在股价中。随着美国经济复苏进一步推进，美国10年期国债收益率有可能从低位向上，对以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数将会有一定的冲击，对A股的成长股也会有冲击。

2^ndquarter GDP grew quarter-on-quarter. China’s 2nd quarter GDP grew 7.9% year-on-year(yoy), slightly lower than expectation. It rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, which is faster than 0.6% in 1st quarter but slower than the 4th quarter 2020. The industrial value-added grew 8.3% yoy and retail sales grew 12.1%. Both were higher than expected. In the 2nd quarter industrial value-added, retail sales and import-export came in higher than market expectation. It is also noticeable that consumption recovered strongly despite that there were pandemic cases surging in several cities in China. This reflects that China has got to know how to deal with the pandemic without affecting economy too much.

Global economic recovery in pandemic is uneven.This is because vaccines are still in shortage. For those western countries that have purchased more than enough vaccines their economic recovery has been smoothly. For example, the US dining-out and airline traffic have come back to pre-pandemic levels. Yet in East Asia and Pacific region (excluding China) due to the Delta variant the economic growth would slow down significantly. The World Bank downgraded this region’s economic growth in 2021 from 4.4% to 4%.But if China is included the region’s growth rate would be raised from 7.3% to 7.7%. WHO also warned that due to the Delta variant the world would experience the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the developed countries would suffer less than developing countries given that their vaccination rate is pretty high. 

Both A-share and HK stocks rose due to the dovish Fed. The US market was mixed with DOW rising and SP 500 and Nasdaq falling. With strong economic recovery the US treasury yield could go up from current low levels. This would cause correction of the mega-tech stocks in the US as well as growth stocks inA-share and HK market. 

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