Delta病毒对股市是利空吗？截止上周五美国新冠新增病例较前一周7天平均上涨了67%达到26448例，死亡病例上涨26%达到273例，美股大跌。美国前FDA主任认为美国有可能低估Delta病毒造成的传染情况，原因是已打过新冠疫苗的人不会再去做测试，而没打疫苗的人都把COVID-19看成是一个普通感冒，更不会去做测试。根据美国疾控预防中心数据，美国48%的人口已经完全免疫，56%的人口至少接种了一剂疫苗。65岁以上人群中79%已经完全免疫，89%接受了一剂新冠疫苗。但根据华盛顿邮报和ABC新闻联合进行的抽样调查显示：29%的美国人认为他们不太可能接种疫苗，其中20%认为他们绝对不会接种疫苗。所以，美国距离80%的群体免疫还有很长的一段路要走。这对美国经济和股市意味着什么？从巴西和印度的情况看，有可能是坏消息变成了好消息。这两个国家因为遭受Delta病毒侵袭，股市都大幅回落之后又大幅上涨。从这两国经济情况看，小公司和穷人受疫情冲击较大，而大公司反而借此机会降低成本和提升市场份额。能够上市的企业一般都是规模较大的企业。另一方面，疫情的再次爆发促使中央银行继续维持宽松的货币政策。印度储备银行，即印度的中央银行，将基准利率保持在4%的历史低位，以促进借款和建筑活动。回到美国，因为Delta病毒导致的新增病例上升，洛杉矶市加强了防控举措，即在室内需要戴口罩。根据美国FDA前主任，美国大多数地方都不会重新加强防控，因为不会有人支持这种举措。对疫情有顾虑的人都打疫苗了，而没有打疫苗的人都是对疫情不在乎的人。所以，美国未来疫情很有可能会加剧。参照巴西和印度的经验，疫情对经济复苏不利，但是会拖延美联储退出的步伐。如果疫情一而再、再而三，美联储何时能退出宽松的货币政策就是未知数了。也许像日本一样再也退不出来。

A股和港股小幅上涨。港股表现好于A股，主因应是超跌反弹。A股内部估值差异达到极限，热门板块接连调整，市场风格面临切换。外资对中国政府整治互联网平台公司有较大担忧，认为这会压低这些公司的估值。

Is Delta variant a negative to stock markets?  The seven-day average of new daily infections standing at 26,448, up 67% from a week ago according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The weekly average of new daily deaths is up 26% from a week ago, to 273. As of Friday, 48.3% of the country’s population was fully vaccinated and nearly 56% had received at least one dose,according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention （CDC）. More than 79% of people age 65 and up are fully vaccinated and nearly 89% have had at least one dose, according to the CDC. But accordingto a survey by the Washington Post and ABC news, 29% of respondents said thatthey were not likely to get vaccinated. Among it 20% said they would not be vaccinated definitely. Hence, it is still a long way for the US to become herd immunity as it requires 80% of population to be vaccinated. However,Delta variant is not necessarily bad news for stock markets from what happened in Indian and Brazil. Both Indian and Brazil suffered sharp fall of stock markets due to the surging COVID-19 cases caused by Delta variant. Yet both countries’ stock market registered strong bounce back after COVID-19 cases peaking out. On one hand the pandemic hit the poor and the small businesses harder than those bigger ones, which took the opportunities to cut costs and take more market share; on the other hand the central banks would have to maintain the easing policy to boost economy. Take India as an example, the India Reserve Bank kept benchmark interest rate at historical low 4% to help lending and construction activities. So if Delta variant spread out in the US the Federal Reserve might have to maintain its QE policy for a longer time than expected.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. HK market rose strongly bouncing back from low levels. Both A-share and HK market saw the divergence of valuation among sectors came to an extreme, meaning that the market style might change soon. 

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