港股疲弱。从2021年4月20日，即印度疫情爆发的时间点到7月20日，在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中，恒生指数按涨幅排名倒数第二，在该区间（下同）下降6.6%，仅好于日本的下跌7.7%。在恒生12个综合行业中，仅有两个行业上涨，分别是医药生物和公用事业，分别上涨10%和1%。在下跌的10个行业中，7个行业的跌幅在5%以上。跌幅居前的行业是科技、地产建筑和综合，分别下跌12%、10.9%和9.4%。港股从去年4季度到1季度表现较好，但是春节之后受A股下跌带动以及港府征收印花税的影响，表现弱势。4月下旬印度疫情爆发后，港股一路下行，7月份以来甚至连续8天下跌。反观印度，在此期间上涨8.8%，领涨全球16个主要国家和地区。港股如此疲弱的一个原因是美元指数走强。美元指数在2021年5月25日达到低点89.6685之后开始一路上行，至7月20日上涨至92.9764，近2个月时间上涨3.69%。我们在《港股明年大概率跑赢A股》中指出，港股跑赢A股通常是在美元贬值的时候，这种情况下，资金会从美国市场流入新兴市场，而港股估值较低，通常最先受益。而当美元指数走强时，情况就恰恰相反。资金最先流出港股，回到美国本土市场。第二个原因是新冠疫情阻碍了经济复苏。港股价值股占比较高，很多是受益于经济复苏的。但是新冠疫情对这些板块构成了较大冲击，无论是博彩还是航空，都远远没有恢复到2019年同期的水平，也低于市场预期的水平。这些困境中的公司似乎永远也走不出困境，这也对港股造成了很大的压力。再次，港股科技股去年表现全球领先，涨幅媲美纳斯达克和A股的创业板。但今年以来，因为抱团股的瓦解叠加中国政府对互联网平台企业的整治，该板块一蹶不振，领跌港股主要指数。最后，因为中国政府从5月份以来打压大宗商品价格，相关的原材料板块也走势低迷。港股走强一方面需要市场跌出价值，我们认为当前估值已经具有吸引力。另一方面也需要外部的催化剂，如美元走弱或者我国经济复苏超预期。当然中美关系改善也是一个重要催化剂。

周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股微跌，港股跌幅近1个百分点，符合我们的判断。美股和欧洲股市均从低点反弹，大宗商品价格回升。

The HK market has been weak since April. From April 20th to July 20th (the same below) Hang SengIndex fell 6.3%, ranked as the 15th among the 16 major global indexes. Nikkei Index of Japan fell 7.7%, the worst performer out of 16 major indexes. Only 2 sectors,ie. healthcare and utilities sector, rose out of 12 Hang Seng sectors. Among the 10 falling sectors 7 fell more than 5%. Tech, property and conglomerate fell the most at 12%, 10.9% and 9.4% respectively. In comparison Sensex30 of India rose 8.8%, the best performer among the 16 major indexes despite that Delta variant caused COVID-19 pandemic to resurge in India in mid-April. So why HK market was so weak? The first reason is that US dollar has been appreciating since the end of May. In “The HK market would likely outperform A-share in 2021” we found that when US dollar depreciates capital would flow to emerging markets. HK usually benefits more than any other market due to its low valuation. Yet when the US dollar appreciates the capital would flow back to the US and HK is the first market that capital exits. From the end of May the US dollar index rose 3.7% and above 93 on July 20th for the first time in two months. The second reason is that the pandemic has hampered economic recovery. Stocks associated with economic recovery comprises a big component of the HK market. These companies’earnings were below expectation and hence their stock performance. The last but not the least is that Chinese government took measure to control inflation which put commodity prices under pressure. Raw material sector fell sharply. When would HK market perform again? The first is that the market falls to a level with deep value, which we believe it has done. The second is that it needs catalysts, such as better-than-expected economic recovery and US dollar depreciation. Any improvementin Sino-US relationship could drive the market up.

Both A-share and HK market bottomed out on Tuesday. The US and European market also rebounded from a big sell-off on Tuesday.

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